April 27 chase writeup

After perusing the model outputs the morning of April 27 my pulse quickened a bit. The wind shear from the surface up to 500 mb (~18,000 feet) was noteworthy, and the forecast low level helicities for late afternoon were off the charts. I was positive this was a chase day but I wasn’t sure how early I needed to head out until the SPC posted a tornado watch just after lunch for the entire NWS Sterling forecast area.

Given a southwest to northeast storm motion forecast I figured my best bet was to catch cells close to the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains and track them as they traversed the Piedmont. Thus my initial target was the Culpeper / Route 29 corridor, but as I traveled west on Route 3 past Wilderness I noticed a singular cell to my south. Stopping just after 4:00 pm southeast of Culpeper I checked out my new wireless setup – consisting of a MiFi card and my iTouch – and found that the base of that cell was just crossing I-64 and heading northeast. What was more important was that (a) the storm was severe warned and (b) the base was rotating.

Abandoning my original target I charged south down Route 522 to cut in front of the storm in hopes of getting on its south side. I managed to do that – barely – and wound up at 4:45 pm parking near a cove at the north end of Lake Anna that afforded a great view of the approaching storm. The rain shaft was a couple of miles north of me as I sat directly under a rain-free base that represented the rotating mesocyclone.  (Mesocyclone is circled in blue and my location is at the tip of the black arrow in the radar graphic below.)

Photo looking north at 4:54 pm

I saw faint evidence of lowerings and gathering scud, and the winds were at my back as I faced the storm – the inflow meaning the storm was gathering strength instead of gusting out – and noticed a bit of greenage almost overhead.

After watching the storm from that vantage point for almost 20 minutes I left to give chase through the wilds of the Spotsylvania / Orange county border area. I managed to keep the base in sight despite the everpresent tree lines and winding roads while noticing more scud gathering as I attempted to keep up with the now-accelerating storm. Finally maneuvering my way onto Mine Road in Orange county I rambled eastward at the best possible speed but couldn’t get any closer as I witnessed this funnel at 5:30 pm.

By this time I knew this storm was tornado-warned (duh!) but the further east I motored the worse the afternoon traffic got, so I attempted an end around and dived southward on Brock Road down to Todds Tavern in Spotsylvania county. After stopping to gather my wits and catch my breath I noticed that another storm trailing the first one was looking very interesting. A quick check of radar verified rotation so I reversed course and headed northward to Route 3 just east of Wilderness, where I witnessed a very obvious lowering. In the face of the nightmare traffic I rolled eastward a couple of miles to a crossover on Route 3 near the Chancellorsville Battlefield that provided a clear view to the northwest and set up shop around 6:00 pm to watch and take photos.

Photo looking northwest  at 6:09 pm

From this location I phoned in a wall cloud and funnel report to the NWS Sterling office which issued a tornado warning on this new storm shortly thereafter. I couldn’t see the ground under the obviously rotating funnel so I couldn’t verify a tornado…but I’m pretty sure my later photos show a tornado in progress. 

After the rain wrapped around it and I could no longer see any details I finally trudged home amid thoughts of resting and editing photos and videos. However, more rotating storms approached from the south after dark so I gave chase without success.  The tornado warned cell I targeted fell apart before it crossed from Caroline county into eastern King George county. If I had been adventurous enough I would have blasted northwest to chase a tornadic storm that roared through the Culpeper area, but by that time I was pretty much done…even if Nature wasn’t.

Initial video edit

This is the first video clip of the second wall cloud / funnel / tornadic storm this afternoon.  This is a brief clip from my low-tech non-HD video.  The location is near Chancellorsville Battlefield, in the median of Rte. 3 looking northwest.

A tornadic day in Virginia

Quick post of a couple of pictures and brief writeup.  I have videos to edit plus there are more storms on the way that I might have to check out in a night chase.

I started out heading toward Culpeper today but was redirected - via my newly integrated MiFi and iTouch connection - southward down Rte 522 to the Lake Anna area where I intercepted a rotating rain-free base of a slowly moving storm.  I sat literally underneath the rotation with no wall cloud or funnels evident for 20 minutes until the storm trudged off to the northeast.  Of course when I gave chase through the wilds of Orange and Spotsylvania counties the storm accelerated and I struggled to keep up.  Once I got situated on Mine Road I glimpsed this as I headed east toward Fredericksburg:

For obvious reasons this storm was tornado warned.
I began to lose the storm given the treelines and increasing traffic so I turned south on Brock Road in Spotsylvania county in an end-around attempt but gave up at Todds Tavern, where I gathered my wits and checked radar again.  The trailing storm was also showing evidence of rotation so I headed back north to Route 3 near Wilderness, saw a lowering, and promptly sped east to park in the median and take these photos:

 My initial view

After it evolved a bit.

I did my SkyWarn duty and called in a funnel report to NWS Sterling and this storm became tornado warned as well.  

As I write this yet another storm is bearing down on Fredericksburg with indicated rotation and a tornado warning.  More probably to follow!!

Chasing weekend?

The SPC has our immediate area on the fringes of potential severe weather both this afternoon (Saturday) and Easter Sunday, but I'm not jumping up and down about the possibilities after reviewing the models.  Trust me, I will be watching radar and will head out to chase this afternoon if anything warrants it but I'm not holding my breath.  As for tomorrow I will have my chase gear available but there are more important things to consider on Resurrection Day, so that chase potential remains a big "we'll see".

And the answer is "no, I didn't chase today"...

One of the hardest decisions I've had to make in recent years was to not chase today.  I could list all the main factors (too much overcast and limited visibility, no mobile radar access, storms traveling in excess of 60 mph, ...) but the truth is I didn't feel much like doing anything today.  In fact, I even voluntarily went to see a doctor today to check out this respiratory crud to make sure it wasn't morphing into bronchitis or something worse.   That in itself says a LOT about the decision to stay home vs. chase.

So, I missed an epic storm chase day in Mid-Atlantic history.   Kudos to those who went out and witnessed some of the most awesome East Coast storms of recent years.  Oh, and excuse me for my teeth grinding and fits of frustration today...between the naps on the couch.

A Saturday chase is in the cards

The Storm Prediction Center has upped the ante for tomorrow by calling for a Moderate Risk in the coastal Carolinas.  Meanwhile Northern VA is likely to be under the gun as well for severe storms with potential for rotation which should roll through between 3 and 8 pm.  I feel a tug to head south to the Moderate Risk area but I really don't want to travel that far tomorrow, so it looks like I'll be starting in the Charlottesville area and chasing north and east.  Photos and videos to follow later in the weekend!

Hmmmm.....Saturday may be more than just a washout

The models have been hinting at the chances for some strong storms Saturday, and now the SPC has chimed in with their evaluation.  The forecast text uses words like "low-level shear" and "rotating storms", which leads to the "T" (tornado) word.  I'll have to put chasing on the agenda for Saturday afternoon!

Monday, once again?

I've been keeping an eye on this coming Monday as another potential chase day, but the latest model runs all seem to have slowed down the passage of an approaching cold front that would trigger storms.  It looks like another nocturnal frontal passage after a very warm day (highs into the 80's!), so unless a potent pre-frontal trough occurs east of the mountains I don't think daylight chasing is in the cards.  The best I can hope for at this point is sufficient lightning to allow me to see something if I do go out Monday night. 

The cold front approacheth

This is early spring in its full glory...nighttime cold frontal passages that nix chasing but tend to keep me awake listening for storms anyway.  The pre-frontal line of storms that was pounding its way thru KY and WV is weakening a bit as it runs into dryer more stable air east of the mountains (dewpoints are in the upper 40's in the Piedmont).  Any storms that do hold together will be low-topped, meaning no lightning to reveal storm structure and probably no hail either.  However, the winds are a bit worrisome and that's why the Storm Prediction Center has us outlooked for strong winds rather than the other severe stuff (you know, hail, tornadoes, that kind of stuff).
Tomorrow morning will be the proof of the pudding when the cold front dives across the Piedmont and coastal plain.  I'm expecting that front to be nearing our location about the time I leave the house, meaning a wet and windy drive to work.  Maybe if I'm lucky I'll be juuuuuuusssssttttt ahead of it...

Okay, who ordered up a hailstorm tonight?

I was watching TV this evening, minding my own business, when my wife poked her head in the room and said she thought was hearing thunder.  Sure enough when we both stepped outside we were rewarded with a nice CG with anvil crawlers.  Stepping back in I found this on the radar:

Not much to look at, but I took my trusty low-tech camcorder outside to try to catch some lightning frames.  I did:

But this was after I had to move back inside due to a pea-sized hailfall.  What's up with this?  Must be elevated storms firing ahead of - or along - a northward moving warm front.  It was cool nonetheless!

Local "hail showers" today, but Tuesday's potential is diminishing

This radar grab from 3:13 p.m. illustrates the showers that sped through northern Virginia today, including the warned storm shown above that had 1.0 inch hail reported near Dale City.  There were also a couple of unofficial local hail reports around the Fredericksburg area from other cells.  Following a cold frontal passage around noon a cold air pool aloft enhanced the instability that created these showers.
As far as Tuesday's severe potential goes the current models are indicating a cold frontal passage in the morning, robbing storms of the additional instability that would result from peak heating in the afternoon.  Regardless, I'll be watching radar for anything worth scooting outside to witness while hoping that the models are incorrect and/or the front slows down.  An April chase would be great!