Next week?

Right now the GFS is hinting at instability in Northern Virginia each day Mon-Wed next week.  Tuesday looks like the best storm chances overall, and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has issued a forecast graphic to that effect.  I don't see a lot of directional wind shear at the moment, but speed shear is plentiful so I would guess we will see a squall line or two.  Have to wait for the NAM forecast cycle to cover those same days to get another "opinion" on what will happen, but I'm already anticipating an early April chase...or two!

A nice springtime intercept, but the best stuff came after dark

That's my explanation and I'm sticking to it!!  I headed for Culpeper this afternoon to get out from under the cold air damming wedge that gummed up northern and eastern Virginia today and wound up breaking out into sunshine by the time I made it to Lignum.  That was the good news; the bad news was that the upper level disturbance the models had forecast to come through and fire storms between 4 and 5 pm weakened and passed through further south than originally thought.  So there I was in Culpeper, twiddling my thumbs under a bright blue sky.
Patience paid off, however, as the storms over West Virginia finally crept my way.  I dithered over whether to head north to intercept a nice cell heading toward Warrenton or to head south to catch one nearing Orange.  The latter storm wound up with a severe TS warning on it and I could get to it with more daylight left, so south I went.  I scooted south on Rte 522 to a point in southern Orange county just south of the rain shaft and watched as the back edge drifted by:

Other than some CGs nothing else materialized so I dithered again over whether to follow this storm northeastward through the wilds of Spotsylvania county.  I finally decided on a route - 10 minutes later than I should have - and gave chase.  As I caught up with the back edge I began to notice that it had lifted a bit and smoothed out in appearance, evidence that it had stumbled into the cold air wedge and the convection was becoming elevated.  Lightning was still plentiful as I made it back to the barn just before full dark.
Then, this line barged in our direction:

Notice the TVS icon (purple triangle)...it passed through the area I had left only two hours previously!!  Even tho' it was fully dark I wasn't a happy camper at having missed it, but hey, it was a chase!

Storms in the morning, storms in the evening

I was actually shocked this morning - no pun intended - to witness lightning in the western sky as I prepared to venture off to work.  I strove mightily to get there before the rain to no avail, but seeing CG's before full daylight will definitely get the chaser's blood pumping. 
Knowing there was a chance of storms also this afternoon kept drawing my attention to the radar display, but as of 5:00 pm or so I didn't see much chance of chasing anything worthy during daylight hours.  However I was pleasantly surprised to have a line come through as dusk fell, and I located myself (black "X") in a weak spot in the line to observe its passage:

I witnessed lots of lightning but didn't catch any on video as I finally had emptied the batteries of all remaining charge.  My inexpensive handheld weather radio also bit the dust as the antenna broke after a couple of years of keeping it together with luck and an overly large screw.  But, that's what early season local intercepts are for:  working out the kinks from several months of chasing inactivity before the real stuff begins in earnest.

Monday and Wednesday

At the moment the GFS model is showing some weak instability for the Mid-Atlantic both tomorrow (Monday) and Wednesday afternoons while the NAM agrees only with tomorrow's prognostication.  The upper level winds are fairly strong but unidirectional out of the west both days, while the surface winds look to be southwesterly.  We may have enough environmental forcing for some thunderstorms both days but severity is very much in doubt right now.  Regardless, I'll be watching the radars both afternoons!

Close, but no cigar

I was out watching the squall line pass through last evening but didn't see anything noteworthy other than some early season lightning.  While I was out I heard this tornado warning issued for the Warrenton area.  The above velocity frame grab shows the rotation just outside of the town.  The NWS survey team today verified EF-1 damage in Bealeton that was reported 9 minutes prior to the above frame.  As the blog post title says....

Thursday?

Having just dumped out 2.1" of rain from my backyard analog gauge we're looking at that much or more to come between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday night.   With this system Virginia could also see another chance at severe weather, but the current storm track appears to favor the Tidewater area for instability to go along with the shear that will be present.  I doubt that I'll be able to get out and chase, but I'll certainly be looking carefully at radar to see what may happen.  Soon enough my schedule and the weather's schedule will match up for an honest to goodness chase, but it's hard waiting!