Not much to look at, but it is still February

When the convective line ahead of today's cold front showed up over 3 hours earlier than local models had forecast - and since the SPC had issued a tornado watch for our region -  I made a quick decision to head out early and plowed westward toward Culpeper.   The approaching line beat me to it so I pulled off Rte 3 west at Lignum just before the rain started.  My location is marked with the purple cross on this radar depiction:

 This photo was taken within 4 minutes of the above radar frame, looking northward:

I was a bit concerned that there was no lightning accompanying this potentially severe line, meaning the cells hadn't developed tall or strong enough updrafts to achieve charge separation given the very small amount of available instability.  (Besides not seeing any lightning or hearing thunder I employed my low-tech lightning detector...the chasemobile's AM radio.  No static discharges = no lightning anywhere near)  That's not a good sign if one is interested in chasing severe storms.
As the most interesting part of the line headed north of the Rappahannock river I was left to retreat eastward along Rte 3, stopping briefly in Fredericksburg and then trying to get back in front of the line by motoring further east and south.  Winding up in Essex county on Rte 17 I got far enough ahead of the line to enjoy roughly 45 seconds of the warm sector before the cold outflow again caught up with me.  At this point the tornado watch had been called off and nothing remotely severe was likely to happen, so I snapped a few scud photos while enjoying the outing.

OK, I'll bite...tomorrow is a chase day

After perusing some short range models it now seems that the chances for chasing in northern VA tomorrow afternoon have improved considerably.  Even tho' the cold front won't make it past the I-95 corridor until after dark there should be at least a couple of pre-frontal TS cells that could show rotation given the shear and helicity profiles.  Thus - given that I can free up my schedule tomorrow afternoon - I will be heading to the Bealeton area to position myself to intercept rapidly moving cells on their SW-NE trajectory.  That also gives me the option of diving southeastward to stay ahead of the line(s) to track more cells.
The main disadvantages I will face tomorrow are the lack of a cellular internet connection (haven't yet decided on which option to use this year) and the relatively early darkness on a late February day.  I can somewhat mitigate the first disadvantage by stationing myself near WiFi coverage until I actually give chase, but the second factor will likely prove to be the main limitation tomorrow.  Either way I'm ready to conduct my first chase of 2011!!

And another February severe setup

Here's the Day 3 SPC convective outlook for Monday, showing us in a slight risk area.  This comes after tomorrow's SPC prediction of another Moderate Risk for the Mid-South, with possibly another tornado outbreak like Thursday's.  The only sticking point with Monday's setup for us is that the bulk of the activity will likely occur after dark.  I'm hoping for something chaseable during daylight hours but that still remains to be seen.

W-I-N-D but nothing else

I did pay attention to the radar earlier this afternoon in case something blossomed that was worth venturing out to "chase".  (I use "chase" loosely as any attempt would have been a lucky intercept, watching the storm scream by at the speeds they were moving today.)  There were a couple of severe TS warnings in Maryland, but I saw nothing worth venturing out to see.  I did traipse outside to look at one passing cell but didn't see anything worth noting. 

Maybe a repeat Monday afternoon?  The setup looks similar, so we'll see...

A "See Text" provides the first faint hope of the 2011 Mid-Atlantic chase season

The models have been showing the wind shear from the approaching system along with a wee bit of CAPE for instability, but this is the first SPC convective graphic that integrates the two.  I'll be watching the radar tomorrow but doubt I'll head out unless a storm gets fairly close.  The most we could hope for would be severe winds since the shear is linear (vice directional), but hope springs eternal for something worthy of chasing this time of year!

UPDATE 9:20 pm:  It should go without saying that I don't want severe weather to happen in any given area.  The damage that the current squall line in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys is producing should give anyone pause before wishing for severe weather.  However, if it does occur my desire is to observe, report, and record it, hopefully for the safety and security of all concerned.

First forecast CAPE of the season!!

I knew that late Wednesday into Thursday this week could provide a chance for severe weather in the Plains, but I wasn't expecting that same chance to hold for us as well.  Altho' I haven't been rigorously checking the CAPE forecast this winter I do believe this is the first of the season.  (I confess:  I was actually cued into this by checking the SPC convective outlook rather than searching the models to begin with.)  Will we see severe weather in northern Virginia Friday?  It's too early to tell, but there does appear to be some decent wind speed shear as a forecast cold frontal passage occurs.
Remember that Tornado Drill for March 15th!!

Right on cue!

Wild spring weather ahead?

Of course this is just a guess...but if they're right the Tornado Drill Day next month is even more important.

And just think of the storm chase possibilities!!

One month until Virginia Tornado Drill Day!!

I'll be banging the drum for this event over the next 4 weeks so prepare yourself.  We have more tornadoes occurring in Virginia than most people realize, and some of them have them pretty powerful.  I witnessed the beginnings of the 17 Sept 2004 F-3 tornado that rolled through Remington, and here's a photo of it that I took in the Sumerduck vicinity (looking southwestward) just after calling in a tornado report to NWS Sterling: 

The number of tornadoes we get are small in comparison with Tornado Alley out in the Plains, but we get enough to ensure the need to stay on our toes as witnessed by this map. 
Stay tuned for more drum beating on this topic!

Still more SDS relief: July 23 2008 Spotsylvania tornadoes

In honor of the continuing cold weather I have been playing with some older chase photos and remembered the fateful evening of 23 July 2008 as my son and I were heading from a Culpeper area chase near dusk when a surprise funnel popped out underneath a developing convective line just ahead of us.  We were traveling east on Route 3 in Spotsylvania county, nearing the Wilderness (Rte 20) intersection when we first spied the feature and zoomed further east in an attempt to find an untreed vista.  Before we stopped I snapped this photo (my son was driving) through the windshield:

 

After we finally pulled off the busy highway I oriented myself toward the northeast and snapped a raft of photos, one of which was this one:

The cloud tags were rotating around a vertical axis while moving upward, so altho' there was no visible debris on the ground beneath it I dubbed it an official tornado.  We watched this line as the wall cloud built and reformed several times before the rain and storm movement obscured our view.  Almost ready to quit as darkness fell (and traffic worsened) we checked radar and found the line behind us that we had given up on was redeveloping, so we rolled down Catharpin Road to a western facing vista and observed - via lightning flashes - what was likely another tornado well after dark:

Not bad for a chase that we thought was over before things really got started!

16 June 2008 Louisa county VA mothership

This is an overview shot of a "mothership" meso and wall cloud looking southwestward in Louisa County VA, not far from Wares Crossroad at the intersection of Routes 208 and 522.  I found this open vantage point from which to watch this system approach (rain shaft is visible on the right).  I did call in a spotter report to NWS Wakefield, which issued a severe TS warning with rotation notice.  I watched this cell for a number of minutes before the rain got too close and managed to get this closeup view of the meso from almost underneath:

I never did see anything I could identify as a funnel but you can bet my attention was riveted on this rain free base the entire time I sat there.

More SDS relief: 2004 Plains chase pix

This is one of my two favorite photos from our 2004 excursion to the plains.  This was taken in southeastern Colorado.  I love the fact that the train and track bisects the photo, providing a dividing line between the storm and the grassy plain...and this photo has not been cropped.

This would be the other favorite from that trip.  This supercell was over western Kansas as we were looking east from Colorado.  We had to pull over and photograph the scene!