The 12Z NAM run is now showing 500-750 J/kg of CAPE for tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon in eastern Virginia. That's not impressive until one realizes how good the shear and helicity values look, which means that we'll be looking at a classic low CAPE / high shear setup for the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. That's obviously why the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded southeastern VA to a slight risk (15%) for severe storms, with Fredericksburg and much of the rest of the eastern portions of the state under a 5% risk.
My main concerns regarding chasing tomorrow are the potential for heavy rain (poor driving conditions) and low ceilings (poor visibility), but I can mitigate that by perusing satellite views and surface observations. If chasing conditions are marginal I won't be wandering too far afield, but if the sun pops through somewhere chaseable in eastern Virginia I will extend my range a bit beyond the normal sites. After all, I may not get another opportunity to chase for several months!
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