Eyes on Wednesday afternoon

As of the 12Z runs this morning both the NAM and the GFS models are showing sufficient instability (CAPE) and wind shear Wednesday afternoon to produce some decent storms in northern Virginia. The lift mechanism will be the currently stationary front over southeastern Virginia, which will push back to the northwest as a warm front. Surface winds will be southeasterly while upper level winds veer around to southerly and southwesterly, so low level rotation may be the order of the day. Potential chase locale will be determined largely by where the front sets up in early afternoon and where the sun peeks through to help create the instability and initiate convection.
Watching and waiting...

UPDATE 3:30 pm:
Bingo!! Apparently the Storm Prediction Center assesses tomorrow's severe risk here in Virginia the same way I did, which is somewhat comforting.