Both the GFS and the NAM are showing some surface-based instability for both Monday and Wednesday afternoons but I'm not holding my breath for anything chaseable. The previous "setups" have proven shaky at best and this one looks like it will follow the same pattern. There is some overall shear available given the upper level low over the upper Midwest which is kicking up decent jet stream level winds, but the lower level winds aren't stirring my chaser's soul. Unfortunately the Storm Prediction Center agrees with me.
To ease the pain of the dwindling 2011 storm chase season I have been posting Virginia chase accounts each Monday over at the Fredericksburg Weather blog. This week's account will be from the 2007 chase season.
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