After perusing some short range models it now seems that the chances for chasing in northern VA tomorrow afternoon have improved considerably. Even tho' the cold front won't make it past the I-95 corridor until after dark there should be at least a couple of pre-frontal TS cells that could show rotation given the shear and
helicity profiles. Thus - given that I can free up my schedule tomorrow afternoon - I will be heading to the Bealeton area to position myself to intercept rapidly moving cells on their SW-NE trajectory. That also gives me the option of diving southeastward to stay ahead of the line(s) to track more cells.
The main disadvantages I will face tomorrow are the lack of a cellular internet connection (haven't yet decided on which option to use this year) and the relatively early darkness on a late February day. I can somewhat mitigate the first disadvantage by stationing myself near WiFi coverage until I actually give chase, but the second factor will likely prove to be the main limitation tomorrow. Either way I'm ready to conduct my first chase of 2011!!
2 comments:
Hey Chris...timing will be key tomorrow. Forecast soundings for Leesburg right now (Sun. afternoon) show a robust wind field for Monday, but not much directional shear (SW sfc, WSW aloft). Still able to crank out 0-1kmSRH of 250m2/s2+ though, so any cells that do fire will certainly have an environment that is favorable for some rotation. Instability is typically weak for this time of year (but 500j/kg in February is still worth noting!), and storm motion is forecasted to the ENE at a leisurely 50kts+. Pretty typical early-season (REALLY early this time) high shear, low CAPE set-up. Too early to forecast such things, but tornado potential will probably be tied to storm-scale interactions, boundaries, etc. Could be a squall line set-up for the NRV too. -Dave
Dave,
Timing is always the key!! I'm counting on local conditions (lee of the Blue Ridge, storm scale interactions, etc) to add enough low level shear to produce a wall cloud or two. A funnel or tornado would be icing on the cake for such an early season chase!!
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