Wait...this is December!

Are you kidding me?  Tomorrow morning is December 1st, and east of the Blue Ridge the Old Dominion is forecast for a 5-10% chance of tornadoes!!  You bet I'll be out tomorrow morning to catch the FROPA just after 7 a.m.!  I'm keeping my fingers crossed that there will be enough light to see whatever comes my way!

Wednesday morning storms...a chase opportunity?

The setup for Wednesday morning is beginning to get interesting.  Granted, whatever storms may be forced by the approaching cold front will occur near daybreak, but the shear values are impressive as well as the available moisture.  I may have to get up earlier than normal and be ready to head out if conditions warrant.  How cool would  a December 1st chase be?!!

Supercells out west, but nothing chaseable here

Not bad for a November setup!  Wish I could chase something like that here in the Mid-Atlantic during daylight hours...all in rural areas, of course.

No thunder, but some rain

There will be a strong cold front passing through the area this week...just not at the right time.  The cold front looks to sweep through here early Friday morning, the worst possible time for instability.  The next front will blast through here next Tuesday afternoon - according to the GFS model - so we'll see how that works out.  Even so, that system looks to slow down over the Mid-Atlantic and give us a couple of wet days next week. 

Next week's cold frontal passage

The models are still showing a strong cold front passing through here next week, but the two big questions are (a) timing and (b) instability.  So far no CAPE is evident in the forecasts, altho' speed shear seems abundant.  And the timing is still in question as the front appears to slow down as a surface low develops in the Ohio Valley.  Even so I'm still vaguely optimistic about a chaseable setup; I need one more before winter and SDS!

Strong cold front through here the week of Thanksgiving?

The VERY long range GFS model forecast indicates a mass of cold air will swoop south out of western Canada the weekend before Thanksgiving.  That said, the trajectory and timing could provide a strong November cold frontal passage through the Mid-Atlantic a couple of days before Thanksgiving.  It's still a long way out, but if enough moisture is involved that cold front could spark a few storms around here.  One final 2010 storm chase?  Perhaps.   I'm not holding my breath, but I am keeping an eye on the models.

The 2010 chase season could be over

I've been haunting the forecast models for even a hint of chaseable storms and all I see is a cold frontal passage through the Mid-Atlantic early next Saturday morning.  The forecast mixed layer CAPE (instability) is minimal, the time of day is all wrong for decent convection, and the upper level support looks like it will scoot well north into Canada by the time the front gets here.  Short of another major Midwestern storm system - a la last week - or a landfalling tropical system we may be at the end of the line for the 2010 chase season.  I've been holding out hopes of at least one more chase near my self-defined Veterans' Day end date, but I'm losing confidence with every model run.  That, plus the onset of Eastern Standard Time this weekend and subsequent earlier sunsets, is not an extraordinarily happy thought for a storm chaser.  Guess I'll have to live vicariously through the various TV storm chase shows while I decide whether or not to write up and publish my 2010 experiences.

Let's get our priorities straight here

I just noticed something in this pic from the 27 October storm near Fredericksburg.  Take a look at the sign circled in blue on the left edge of the photo.  There is both a "Beware of the Dog" sign and a "No Trespassing" sign...but nothing about "Hey, keep an eye on that approaching funnel!!".  Where are our priorities?
(BTW, I was on public land watching this storm and didn't cross over the line into private property.)