Well, now, wait a minute!

Thursday may be back on the chasing menu.  The 12Z runs of both the WRF and GFS have a touch of CAPE showing at 18Z tomorrow, with rather insane shear values (directional and speed) given the close passage of the low center just to our west.  That, plus indicated Theta-E ridge shown above topping out in our general vicinity means that I just might have to take my gear with me tomorrow morning and keep an eye on the radar for rotating updrafts.  Now, if just a little sunshine could sneak into the warm sector right over top of us for a couple of hours tomorrow afternoon...!!

No dice today, and probably not Thursday either

Storms happened at all points of the compass with respect to the Fredericksburg area, but absolutely nothing occurred within chasing distance.  In fact, we missed out on most of the rain that dumped copious amounts of moisture around the region, but our turn is coming tomorrow night and Thursday.  TD 16 (possible TS Nicole?) is headed up the East Coast and looks to steam directly through Virginia.  If it would happen to shift 50-100 miles westward we could wind up in the warm sector with plenty of shear, but that doesn't look likely at the moment.  Still, one can hope...

Still possible for Tuesday

Although this graphic doesn't look as hopeful as the previous post's there still may be a chance for some Tuesday boomers here.  If the cold frontal passage is phased with peak heating that afternoon I might get another lease on chasing life this fall.  The shear still looks good, so as of now I plan to have my chase gear with me that afternoon.

Tuesday looks like a possibility as of now

With an upper level low forecast to be meandering around the southeastern U.S. early next week the prospects of a chase opportunity are beginning to peek around the corner.  This MLCAPE graphic for Tuesday afternoon indicates enough instability to justify a bit of interest, especially when a quick look at the forecast wind field indicates some decent speed and directional shear from the surface to the 500 mb level thanks to an approaching trough.  Keeping my fingers crossed...

Severe TS watch all for naught

The toilet bowl struck again:

Most of the really good convection happened well north and well south of our area as seen in the above radar grab.  There was a nice lee trough just east of the Blue Ridge that fired a couple of really nice warned cells, one of which created a 60 mph wind gust that downed trees in Orange county.  Unfortunately all that convection collapsed as it trudged slowly eastward toward I-95.  I wasn't able to head westward in time to catch the cells either as I had a previous mid-afternoon appointment, so all I could do was to intermittently gaze longingly at the radar view.

Perhaps tomorrow?

This 4 km WRF radar view for 6:00 pm tomorrow shows a significant line of storms crossing the Northern VA area.  They look somewhat chaseable, but I have yet to find significant support from other models for these storms (altho' there are hints of a lee trough and some 700mb vertical velocity).  Guess I'll have to wait for tomorrow's SPC Day 1's and the 0Z runs from this evening to see if anyone else sees this as real.  I could use a chase about now!

No news lately

The 2010 chase season is rapidly closing out with a whimper given the extended drought conditions the Mid-Atlantic is undergoing.  We haven't had enough rain to fill a teacup in recent weeks, much less any chaseable storms.  And given the propensity for the Atlantic tropical systems to stay well out to sea it doesn't appear that we will see any tropically-induced thunderstorms any time soon.  So, at most I would expect one or two more opportunities between now and Veterans' Day, which is my self-proclaimed end of the northern Virginia chase season.  Guess I need to begin the look-ahead to 2011, both here and in the Plains!!