Still waiting

So far we've missed the storms that have passed through the area.  Several prolific rain producers formed just east of town and tracked away from us, but there are a few more cells still off to the north and west that may yet find their way to us.

I did manage to "chase" this afternoon in King George county, seeing only heavy rain and some lightning.  I mainly enjoyed the vistas I was blessed enough to witness, including a southern view of two separate cells with a rain free base between them over the Rappahannock River valley:

Turning around to the north I watched as an outflow boundary from a cell over the Potomac River snaked its way toward me, made visible by a ragged roll cloud that clearly exhibited upward movement along its leading edge and downward motion along the trailing edge:

As this feature passed over me a breeze cooled me down as I waited for the boundary to interact with the cells to the south.  I thought I saw the beginnings of a lowering but the storms were well on their way eastward at that point.
I headed home to check radar and promptly scooted out the driveway again to check out a local cell that was passing just to our north.  It appeared to show a lowering from a rain free base back of the rain shaft, but nothing clearly jumped out at me:

All in all I enjoyed this afternoon's storms, but nothing that I saw gave evidence to the severe TS watch we were under.

Fredericksburg missed the boat again!

I did give chase to a convective line this afternoon...AFTER I verified that at least some storms survived their Appalachian crossing.  Unfortunately the portion of this line - associated with a front that dropped Shannon Airport's temperature into the mid-80's after a high of 104 degrees F - that passed through Fredericksburg fell apart, with the southernmost cell dumping prodigious amounts of rain juuuuuuuust north of town.  I first intercepted the line in central Stafford county where I wound up juxtaposed between the last and the next-to-last cell under a rain free base.  Keeping an eye on that base for any signs of storm organization I retreated in front of the line to the Stafford Regional Airport location where I stopped and watched as the northern cell spit out rain and lightning as the southern cell headed directly for me:

I never saw any organization, nor did I observe any lightning from the above cell, but I enjoyed the sight of the onrushing rain shaft as it approached my position:

After the rain lessened I headed south on Route 1, reaching totally dry pavement about a half-mile south of the Stafford Airport intersection.  Soooo close, but no rain for the city.  Oh, and all the decent storm activity stayed to the north as well.

Sunday "cold" front may lead to chasing!

A frontal passage tomorrow will trigger some strong storms sometime during the afternoon, and based upon the above graphical depiction of the available mixed layer CAPE (instability) and a quick review of forecast wind profiles I agree with the SPC that Northern and Central Virginia may see a few supercells tomorrow.  The upper level trough that is pushing the surface front through will actually sag a bit further southward than recent systems have, providing more upper level wind support to strengthen storms than we've seen for a few weeks. 
Unfortunately this frontal passage won't lead to cool conditions, just less hot than we're seeing today.   The National Weather Service forecast for Fredericksburg shows the coolest high temperature for next week to be 90 degrees.  But a chase is a chase is a chase!

Could be another funnel!

Given the Severe TS watch issued for the region just south and west of us I decided this afternoon was a good day to chase, altho' I wasn't excited about parking in a target spot based on my analysis of the local conditions. That would have meant sitting in the broiling sun and steamy humidity while waiting for storms to push across the mountains and refire over the Piedmont.  So, I cheated...I went home and watched radar for an hour before heading westward into Orange county.  Motoring west on Rte. 3 I noticed a large updraft and base to the southwest so I zoomed down Rte. 20 hoping for an intercept.  It came sooner than I expected so I pulled off the highway at the Mine Road intersection and snapped this shot at 6:01 pm of what appeared to be an organizing wall cloud at the juncture of two separate cells:

When the rain approached I pulled back out onto Rte. 20 and retraced my steps northeastward, pleased that this cell was paralleling my path.  I stopped a couple more times to observe this part of the storm but had to keep moving to stay ahead of the rain.  Reaching Rte. 3 I moved back eastward and discovered the storm was close to paralleling that highway as well, so I was able to stay south of the rain shaft by diving onto the Old Plank Road and snapped this photo at 6:33 pm.

As I watched - relatively dryly - this feature grew and four minutes later (6:37 pm) put out a very funnel-like finger, but I watched closely and couldn't determine if there was actually rotation or if this was just scud.

A quick review of the video hasn't shown any rotation either, but I will examine that more closely a bit later.  I was actually able to keep up with this cell for several more miles before I gave up amidst the ubiquitous Rte. 3 heavy traffic west of Fredericksburg. 

Quiet King George county intercept

The local models indicated a bit of instability today, but the best "action" was to take place both north and south of us again (sound familiar?).  So far this has held true, but I did squeeze in an intercept of a neat little shower in King George county.  It never did pack much of a punch, but it came framed by a bright blue sky:

As the base moved in my direction a rain shaft developed underneath, with a bright streak in the left center that was either a unique sun reflection off the rain or a small hail shaft (I couldn't tell which):

Finally the cell developed an outflow that I estimated at 25 knots, not enough to cause damage but good enough to cool me and my location off:

The updraft never punched high enough to create charge separation thus there was no lightning or thunder.  So was this a chase?  I don't know and I don't care...I enjoyed it!

Fredericksburg area under the gun again today?

This graphic depicts a Mesoscale Discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center that indicates conditions may result in the issuance of a severe weather watch early this afternoon.  This, despite the forecast models that predict our area will be high and dry until sometime after dark.  A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is plowing its way across the mountains of West Virginia and appears to have enough steam left over - thanks to an upper level shortwave trough - to fire off storms east of the Blue Ridge.  Hence a need to keep an eye on the sky and on local radars to avoid the surprise that Fredericksburg received last evening when a storm blew through and disrupted a downtown concert.  If this pans out and if I have the chance I will be out chasing this afternoon even tho' I didn't expect today to provide the storm potential.

UPDATE 4:15 pm:  Bottom line is that the storms fizzled out. Oh well.

Unremarkable, but a chase nonetheless

Neither the SPC nor the local models provided me with much hope for strong convection today in areas that I could chase, and so far they've both been right.  The really "good" stuff was north of DC this afternoon so I settled for a generic cell that plowed northward through Caroline, King George, and Stafford counties.  Close to 4:00 pm I had stopped alongside the Port Conway Road in King George close to the Rte. 3 intersection to watch this cell and was rewarded with a CG strike recorded on video:

The only other excitement came from a lowering that appeared to be organizing northwest of my position, so I relocated to Fairview Beach for a better look.  I arrived just as the rain did and didn't see any evidence of the lowering.  After the rain lessened I headed for the barn, stopping to check out storm bases at a local school and snapping a photo of steam rising off the cooling parking lot:

All in all it was a basic local chase, but the good news is that my backyard rain gauge indicated total rainfall of 0.5 inches for today.  We needed it!

15 June picture over Lexington Park MD

I snapped this photo of an apparent wall cloud and funnel over Lexington Park MD on the afternoon of June 15th.  Nothing severe was expected and it didn't last very long so I didn't call it in as a spotter report.  It still made for a classic double take in the parking lot.

Another Monday chase?

Not sure about this but the NWS Sterling office is forecasting thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, and at least one model is showing wind speed and directional shear for Northern VA accompanied by sufficient instability and moisture to fire up a severe storm or two.  All this courtesy of a short wave trough skimming by just north of us and providing enough lift to push up some decent updrafts.  If at all possible I'll be out chasing tomorrow if conditions appear ripe enough.  Keep the radars hot!

Whence the next chase?

Besides being HOT in the Mid-Atlantic it has also been dry, to the point where the grass is crunchy and the last storm chase is fading into distant memory.  With the approach of a retrograding upper low the chances for rain should increase a bit by Wednesday afternoon, but I'm not holding my breath for chaseable storms.  I may not have the opportunity to chase toward the end of week anyway, but it's the thought that counts.

Oh, temperature hit the century mark at the local airport earlier this afternoon.