It's still baseball season so the analogy holds. We had plenty of wind shear Thursday with a number of weak updrafts radar-indicated to have rotation. However, the heavy rain, low ceilings, rapid storm movements, and poor visibility all combined to keep me from jumping in the chasemobile in pursuit. I was relegated to walking outside a couple of times as rotating cells zoomed by, but I never saw anything of note.
To get a really good Virginia chase opportunity from tropical systems involves less rain and overcast and more sunshine to fire up some vigorous convection to complement the available wind shear. That was how we got our tornado outbreak in September 2004 from the remnants of Ivan. I still have my gear available given that our climatological chase season doesn't end until Veterans' Day (per my own observation), but this year's wacky weather pattern doesn't engender a lot of confidence for another chase opportunity.
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