This forecast graphic for 8 pm Tuesday shows a decent amount of CAPE (instability) for our region, and the SPC also has us in/near a Slight Risk region. A survey of the models shows some directional wind shear (change in direction with height) but not a lot of speed shear, typical of summertime conditions here. The models also indicate a lee trough east of the Blue Ridge which would provide the lift mechanism needed for storms to form. Thus, we will likely have some scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening (20% chance according to NWS Sterling) and they will likely be slow movers of the west-to-east variety. The interesting part about the latter factor is that I have witnessed very few - if any - southwest to northeast moving storms this spring, which is the typical storm motion direction for us. The upper level weather pattern has been atypical this spring and there doesn't seem to be any indications of a change anytime soon.
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