Still keeping fingers crossed for Wednesday

Both the GFS and the European models are showing a cold front approaching the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday afternoon, with a bit of convective instability (CAPE) out ahead of it. This morning's forecast discussion from NWS Sterling casts doubt on the timing, preferring to go with showers on Thursday, so my certainty of a potential Wednesday chase is a bit lower than it was. This strong East Coast ridge that is bringing us unseasonably warm April temperatures is going to be hard to dislodge without a hard-charging Canadian air mass, and I don't see one of those on the horizon yet. However, we do have enough local factors - mountains, sea/bay/river breezes, etc - that could combine with even weak instability to fire a few storms, so I'm not giving up the ship yet!