This past Saturday's bust

This was the SPC's tornado probability chart for this past Saturday, accompanied by an overall slight risk designation for the Mid-Atlantic. (A five percent area is actually pretty good for us.) There were no severe reports from that day, which in my twisted state of mind as a storm chaser was actually good since I was out of town and couldn't chase that day anyway. Given the upcoming cold air damming forecast for the end of this week it appears that the next low pressure system heading east from the Rockies won't be able to fire any storms for us either. Rats!!

The Veterans Day chase limit is rapidly approaching

As I noted last year Veterans' Day provides an average end to the chase season here in northern Virginia. That's usually when a strong autumn cold front blows through and signals the entrance of a convective drought that lasts until roughly late March. This year may be a bit different, however, since November seems to have made its appearance several weeks early given the recent record cold we've experienced. But I won't give up all hope until November 11th has come and gone.
On another note I am working on an article that provides observations and a hypothesis regarding why we seem to have unexpected and undetected funnels and tornadoes in the Rappahannock River valley. That is keeping my evenings busy looking up data and trying to develop a sensible thematic approach to the whole topic. At an hour or two a pop this will take quite a while to assemble and edit before I'm willing to subject it to peer reviews.

Fall chasing nonexistent

I'd like to report something more positive here but alas, such is not to be. I haven't even eyeballed a storm since the August 28th cell that dropped yet another unexpected funnel (more to come later on that phenomenon), and it doesn't seem my odds of another chase prior to the winter doldrums are very high. I am already toying with the idea of writing up the 2009 chase season much as I did the previous 2002-2008 seasons but just not publishing it a la my two previous books in the Blurb.com library. This helps to keep the chases fresh in my mind plus it helps stave off SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome). The other item that is keeping my eye convectively focused is the potential for being a member of the Hokie Storm Chaser team some upcoming spring (altho' probably not 2010). This is an annual event offered as a Virginia Tech class for undergrad geography students, and I would accompany the team as a trip leader and general chaser weenie. That would be cool, chasing under the colors of my alma mater!

Nope, not today

No chasing today! The front kicked through the Virginia Piedmont early today, and the afternoon sun had little or no moisture to work with west of the Chesapeake Bay. Storms have fired within the last hour on the Maryland Eastern Shore as the front has been hanging around that vicinity most of the day. Unfortunately it looks like today was the best chance for a chase for the next week or so, meaning the probability of a fall chase season is rapidly dwindling. No tropical systems, no active frontal passages, and not much hope for either before the convective season shuts down for the winter.