October chase on the way?

I'm not making any grandiose claims, but the models show a front coming through the Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon accompanied by some decent instability and some wind shear (mostly speed shear). I will be keeping an eye on the model developments over the next couple of days - along with the SPC convective outlooks - to determine whether or not Saturday will be worth anything chase-wise. It would be nice to get another chaseable Northern VA setup or two before the convective season shuts down.

Storms to the north, storms to the south

As the two radar depictions indicate we were once again bypassed by any storm dynamics as the cold front pushed through this afternoon. The southern storms looked pretty interesting, with hail markers and indicated rotation. Alas, the section of the line that was aimed at our area fell apart quite dramatically, leaving me to snap a few melancholy pictures of a fast-waning 2009 chase season:
Will we have a true "fall chase season"? Climatologically we have until roughly Veterans' Day (Nov. 11) to find out. I'm not giving up hope yet!

Fall chase season seems bleak

September appears to be exiting without any chaseable storms in our area. The last possibility seems to be Monday afternoon/evening when a strong cold front is forecast to blast through here. Unfortunately there won't be much moisture to support storms, and the models (see one depiction above) don't show much in the way of accompanying instability. Now if I was inclined to hop onto the interstates and plow my way down into the traffic-laden Tidewater area I could improve my odds of chasing greatly...but I'm as likely to do that as I am to head north and chase in the DC suburbs (NOT!!). However if anything decent fires as close as the Tappahannock vicinity I might be tempted to head out. Meanwhile the longer term forecast is bleak for storms but looking great for autumnal outdoor activities.

Not today, either

The few Virginia storms that did fire today didn't begin to be chase-worthy until about 90 minutes before sunset, and these storms were - you guessed it - about a 90 minute drive from me and heading away. So I've been gazing hopefully at the radar and personally willing a run-of-the-mill shower near Culpeper to grow, but no dice. The last radar frame shows an almost nonexistent return, the signature of an updraft dying on the vine with the loss of solar heating. The next chance of a stray rumble of thunder may occur this weekend, but after that I don't see anything thru the middle of next week. We need a strong cold front to punch through the area with some decent Gulf moisture ahead of it!!

Thursday, not Wednesday

Thursday afternoon / evening now looks more likely than Wednesday for thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic, which is good for me as I think I have that timeframe available for chasing. The instability (see above) will be in place, but the upper level winds are almost non-existent given that the jet stream is nearer the Canadian border than it should be for this time of year. (After all, today is the first day of astronomical autumn!) So if we do get thunderstorms they will likely be of the garden variety type with no severity, but given the paucity of chase opportunities since July I may just try my hand Thursday.

Perhaps storms next week

This forecast graphic shows significant instability for next Wednesday evening; will we actually see thunderstorms then? If so I hope I can get out and chase!

Storms in Virginia...just not near here

Yesterday featured storms to our west and southwest, especially around the Roanoke area, but nothing showed up around here. We are too close to the maritime stable air borne on the wings of the persistent northeasterly breeze caused by the strong high pressure to the north and the stubborn low pressure system lurking off the Virginia coast. Looking at the long range SPC forecasts doesn't make me feel any better, given the low probabilities of any severe weather in the long term forecast. Feels like SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome) is setting in...

Will there be a fall chase season in the Mid-Atlantic?

August certainly didn't provide much chasing potential, and now that we're into meteorological fall (begins Sept 1st) the outlook for chaseable storms definitely dims unless a tropical system gets into the act. However there are usually a few chances between now and Veterans' Day as stronger cold fronts begin to swoop down through the Mid-Atlantic. It's all in the timing: will the storms occur during daylight hours to maximize the solar heating effects and will I be available to chase on any given day?
I have already surrendered a major chasing artifact of this season in that I returned the USB-powered cellular modem to Millenicom, the one I've been renting by the month since late April. That device turned out to be quite handy in locating, tracking, and intercepting storms so I'll likely re-engage the same service next spring. No long-term contract and the same monthly price as signing up with the major cellular carriers...it's a pretty good deal!