Fredericksburg's Friday Fallout

The porta-pottie in the lower right corner symbolizes where things went for today's chase opportunities. We were under an SPC-issued Slight Risk for severe weather with conditions similar to Wednesday's setup, but Mother Nature didn't cooperate today. All the action happened - once again - well north and east of us. I managed to leverage another vacation hour off this afternoon and headed out to intercept some interesting cells in southern King George county, but they all steered almost due east at 30 mph and wound up as a formidable line that pounded the lower Northern Neck. Seeing some convection north of Fredericksburg swooping eastward I turned the chasemobile around and made my way to Fairview Beach to catch a glimpse of some convection that was crossing the Potomac north of there. Alas, this wasn't visible so all I was left with was the cell shown above which I believe was part of the actual cold front that passed through this afternoon. No lightning, no rain, and no rotation added up to a non-event today, also known as a B-U-S-T. Good thing I didn't go very far out of my way for this one!

Tomorrow to be yesterday reprised?

The SPC Day 2 text discussion and at least one forecast model indicates that we could have a repeat of the storms yesterday, with a decent chance of tornadic activity in the area. The hitch for me is that I have dinner and movie plans for tomorrow evening so I'll have to cut short any chasing I may be involved in. Chasing is a high priority with me, but sometimes things come along of even higher priority! That's the beauty of a dedicated chase vacation...once you're on the way there are very few things that are higher priority than trolling for supercells.

29 July Fredericksburg funnel video

This is a video clip showing the funnel and wall cloud I observed just before 6:00 pm today. I've edited the clip and darkened it to show the feature a bit better. It actually lasted longer than I remembered!

Funnel just east of Fredericksburg

When the SPC indicated a 5% tornado probability for our region I immediately checked the models and verified the chance. Thus when cells began firing this afternoon I was able to head out to attempt a mid-afternoon intercept of one in eastern King George county. That one didn't amount to much, but I noticed on radar a nice complex with rotation indicated steaming northeast from the Charlottesville area. As I maneuvered toward the Massaponax area the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for that cell and my anticipation level jumped several notches. After plowing through some heavy rain and equally heavy traffic I managed to get south of the cell near New Post and took the above photos of a wallcloud and funnel. I watched the entire life cycle of the funnel to ensure it wasn't just stray scud before I called it in to the NWS Sterling office. The wall cloud continued to gain definition as it headed toward the Potomac River:
I watched this until it faded into a rainy mess and started for home, only to see another lowering on a cell to my west. I promptly did a U-turn and stopped to watch this pass, catching yet another wallcloud as the back edge of the cell continued east of me.
Good chase, and a verified forecast. Now I have video to edit...

B-U-S-T for a Sunday

This was representative of the radar all afternoon: storms to the north, storms to the south, and none reachable from my chosen departure point (Culpeper). Oh, I never made it there as I jumped on a lone storm that exploded over Spotsylvania county just after 1430 today. It literally grew from no radar return to a 23,000+ feet top with an impressive signature in less than 20 minutes. Of course it fell apart just as quickly while I was getting into position for an intercept near New Post. By the time I figured that out the other storms were rapidly moving northeastward from their respective positions. If I had staged out of either Winchester or Tappahannock earlier in the afternoon I would have been in good position, but neither of those locales were in today's plan. B-U-S-Ted by my own design under a Severe TS Watch!

A modified forecast

Today wasn't supposed to be a chase day. The upper level support via a shortwave trough was to stay far to the north, with a cap in place further south in our area. However, as witnessed by the rain and thunder outside my window right now, the models and forecasts were wrong. The above photo (looking north) was snapped just west of I-95 in Stafford county as the line's leading edge approached. I was also running video and captured this CG:

When the rain got too close I retreated south and east a few miles to a local school parking lot to continue monitoring the line which was strongly outflow dominant, having 20-25 kt winds well ahead of the rain shaft. I watched for a while longer, capturing this rain-hidden CG on video:
As the rain once again approached I didn't see the need to retreat further so I headed home with thoughts of tomorrow's possibilities.

Another Thornburg intercept

Okay, I caved and decided to intercept the short line of storms shown in the radar view in my previous post. Since it was moving basically eastward I saw that I could intercept the south end of the line by heading down to the Thornburg vicinity, so that's where I headed. The above photo was taken from a position roughly a mile east of I-95 near the Caroline/Spotsylvania county line. It shows the rain free base to the south and a gathering of scud that - at the time - looked like a nascent wallcloud. It proved not to be and after the line weakened I decided to sit out the rain in a fast food parking lot before heading north to grab dinner near Massaponax.
After I got there I looked back south and saw this:

And a closeup:
Apparently the southwestern edge was trying to organize but wound up falling apart as this feature dissipated. Never saw any identifiable rotation on radar.

Storms for Us?

I'm currently watching this short line of storms to our west. If they hold together and/or intensify I could be tempted to head out for a look. Otherwise it's a Friday afternoon, traffic stinks, and I'm tired...any one of which is enough excuse to not chase if these storms are too tame. I'm not holding my breath; the upper level support is more to our north so I don't expect these to do much. Of course I've been known to be wrong before...

Video from Caroline county chase

This video has been sped up 8x normal speed to show the rotation as the first wallcloud wraps up and then another one begins to form in the foreground. I witnessed several wallcloud cycles from this supercell. (I apparently didn't mute the audio on the last part of it...I'll fix that and repost as I have time.)

A serendipitous Caroline county intercept

I was hoping for a good chase setup today, but the SPC, the local Sterling forecast office, and the short range models all combined to quash any hope I had. Thus I gave up and trudged home after work, noticing an updraft to the west that I didn't think twice about. After piddling around the house for 30 minutes or so I logged into the computer and Voila! That updraft had exploded into a lone storm with a hail marker on it. It took me two radar sweeps (~10 minutes) to conclude that it wasn't going to fizzle out before I headed out into the rush hour traffic and painfully made my way to the New Post area of Spotsylvania. There I took a quick peek at the radar and decided to get south of the slow moving cell. Pushing through back roads I wound up at Thornburg just as the rain started and motored south on U.S. Route 1, finally locating an observation spot off a rural lane in Caroline county.
The storm had a very distinct rain free base on the south edge of the rain shaft and was sucking up scud with a vengeance. When the rain/hail shaft approached I ventured onto more back roads, winding up at one spot where the obviously rotating mesocyclone base was directly overhead and a gathering wallcloud was literally a couple hundred yards to my west:
Again avoiding the rain and hail as much as possible I maneuvered my way back to Route 1 and moved further south, finding a sports complex where I parked on a hill with a clear view of the meso and a distinct wallcloud:

The video camera captured the rotation of the wallcloud and I'll post that when I have a chance to edit it. I continued further south as the rain once again caught up with me, winding up at the Carmel Church exit off I-95 to watch as the storm appeared to weaken. I never saw any definite funnels, but I did watch the wallcloud cycle several times. Cool!

Fredericksburg area convection

Not much popped up on radar away from the Bay breeze this afternoon, but one cell did go up just west of Fredericksburg about 1630. I stopped in southern Stafford county to watch the base as the rain shaft strengthened, seeing some interesting motion on the back side of the updraft. The two photos above are the best representation of what I was viewing but nothing else exciting happened, not even lightning. However, the overall updraft did appear to be slowly rotating with a few minor striations showing in the cloud canopy. That was enough to keep my interest until the overall storm began to weaken and I could see through the rain shaft. Pretty convenient "chase", as I was coming home from work and was less than 5 miles from the house.

Good boomers today, just no chasing

There were several decent cells that rumbled through the area today that I could have chased except for timing, a prior engagement, and a vociferously complaining back muscle. I did get out to spot check one storm at the local elementary school, but the aforementioned back muscle discouraged investigations further from home. Oh well, given that tomorrow's conditions are forecast to resemble today's perhaps there will be another opportunity tomorrow afternoon.

Picked the wrong storm, but it was a chase

Given a pre-frontal trough forecast east of the Blue Ridge I rolled out of my driveway just before 1500 today to head for Culpeper. The local short range models had indicated convection firing over the Piedmont around 1600, and I wasn't disappointed. The above radar depiction shows what I was seeing on radar when I picked the complex south of town to chase: it was larger and somewhat more organized than the northern cell near Warrenton, which looked to be fading. I thus motored southeast out of the Culpeper area down Rte 522, where I stopped on a west facing hillside and snapped this photo:
This was a rain free base between two cells which was exhibiting a lowering and some incipient inflow accompanied by a couple of explosive nearby CGs. I continued eastward to Rte 20 to stay ahead of the rain while keeping an eye on this part of the storm but never saw anything that I could identify as a wallcloud. Meanwhile I checked radar again and saw the northern storm had strengthened, so I continued east to (hopefully) intercept it near Fredericksburg. Alas, by the time I got there it had fallen apart as shown in the below radar depiction:
The infamous "toilet bowl" had struck again, with the line of storms dividing and avoiding the Fredericksburg area. I headed home with visions of a missed opportunity dancing in my head...I shoulda picked the northern storm, but a chaser can't always be right!

What's with the question marks?????

I've noticed that all my July posts have been punctuated with question marks, and maybe that reflects this unusual summer weather the Mid-Atlantic is experiencing. I will try to be more creative and not continue along that rut....
The short-range models today still indicate the approach of the cold front near dark in the Winchester area, but they are also showing development of a pre-frontal trough east of the Blue Ridge later this afternoon with convection breaking out sometime around 5:00 pm. As such I am now planning to be in Culpeper before that time unless radar indicates something else. Why Culpeper? (Again with the question marks!!) Short answer is the road system there. I can go just about in any compass direction on a major highway to reach a burgeoning updraft. So stay tuned!!

Saturday evening storms?

The models seem to indicate that a cold front that was supposed to steam through here on Saturday has slowed and will likely pass through during the night. The above depiction shows a possibility of some precipitation entering the Shenandoah Valley by 8 pm Saturday and some decent CAPE (instability) and helicity (rotation potential) are also forecast for that time, meaning some storms could fire before dark. Additionally the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 convective outlook has that area under a small (5%) chance of severe weather for Saturday. Depending on how things look in the short-range models on Saturday - as well as how much the radar lights up - I may head up toward Winchester late that afternoon to catch some storms in the open farm country west of the Blue Ridge. I'm ready for some more action!

Storms Tuesday?

The models are still flipflopping, with one model now calling for chances of convection tomorrow afternoon associated with a "cold" front passage while the other major model predicts the next chance of convection being Thursday. Another scenario has storms reoccurring Sunday with yet another "cold" front. I guarantee tomorrow's model runs will show another flipflop...it's that time of year. Meanwhile, I'll be perusing the local models and watching radar the next few days in hopes of another chase. I'm feeling withdrawal pains as I write this...

Next chase?

The model forecasts for the upcoming week don't hold a lot of promise for good chasing weather. Tuesday evening may provide some shower activity but that appears to be headed just north of us. Later in the week another cold air damming situation seems to be setting up with high pressure off the coast of New England pumping (relatively) cool air down our way. The first indications of active weather seems to be Saturday when the tail end of a cold front may pass through some warm moist air over us and trigger storms. However, forecasts further out than 72 hours are very subject to change and even the local Sterling NWS office forecast discussion was hedging its bets for the latter part of the week. Guess we'll have to wait and see (again!).

Meanwhile the photo above is another edited version of one taken of the June 20th funnel here in south Stafford county.

Missed opportunity, or good choice?

Since we had family in this afternoon I didn't make preparations to chase, preferring instead to stay local and perhaps catch a glimpse of a nearby storm. Given the line of storms that formed it was a good choice as the whole system appeared to be a rainy mess rather than something to chase. The two cells shown above were buried in a lot of overcast and rain so I wouldn't have seen much even if I had been out near the I-95 corridor. Now if I'd been out west near Culpeper earlier this afternoon I might have had a better chance before the line coalesced, but then I wouldn't have had the time I did with family. Choices, choices!