Closeups of 28 May funnel(s). Per a prior posting I suspect this was actually a tornado (ground touchdown) given that the visual funnel stretched at least 2/3rds of the way down. But I saw no debris underneath this feature, so I have no proof.
Meanwhile, this is the feature I was watching to the east before I turned the cameras around and saw the westward funnels. This was a wallcloud under a rather benign updraft that never really showed a decent rainshaft. However, with this 7 minute video sped up to less than 30 seconds you can see the gathering scud and indicated rotation. This could have dropped a tornado by itself but never did while I was watching. Good thing I turned the cameras around when I did, though!
At least one forecast model is calling for some interesting conditions in northern VA late Tuesday afternoon. A combination of good instability, wind direction veering from southeast at the surface to south and southwest as you look upwards, and a hint of some upper level energy would lead a storm chaser to dare to think....rotation!! So far the NWS forecast seems pretty benign for Tuesday, and the other model I looked at doesn't seem to hold the same parameters in esteem. Still, stranger things have happened as evidenced by the funnel I spotted this past Thursday when absolutely no severe weather was predicted. Situations like that create the best chasing satisfaction for me when I witness an event that "shouldn't" happen but does. It's also fun tweaking the NWS mets when I call in a report they aren't expecting!
After all was said and done yesterday I was a bit miffed at myself for not being patient enough to wait out the storms in the original intercept spot I'd selected in southeastern Fauquier county. I knew the line was building just east of the Blue Ridge as the cold front nudged in from the west, but I was too impatient to wait for them to get to me. The result was that I wandered around back roads with limited visibility until I pulled out onto Rte 17 northbound and the gust front was RIGHT THERE! Pulling a quick U-turn I scooted south to snap this picture: Since the line was sweeping onward I continued southbound on Rte 17 to Storck Road and stopped at the eastern end of that thoroughfare to video the oncoming storms. The best result was this vidcap of a fairly close CG: Timing is everything...the best CG of the day and the van just had to be in the picture!
Another storm fired on the outflow boundary just to my south so the rain (and indicated hailshaft) filled in rapidly as I attempted to stay ahead of the system. I wound my way toward home until I noticed yet another storm to the south that looked like it had a lowering on it, so I bypassed the house and made my way to Rte 3 eastbound in King George county (second day in a row!) and watched this scud on the leading edge to see if any rotation would ensue: Nothing exciting manifested itself on this line so I called it a day and arrived home after 1830. A decent chase, and I did manage - via a broadband internet connection - to avoid the hailshafts, but I didn't see anything severe this day.
So go figure...I spent all sorts of time and money on a chase trip to Tornado Alley without seeing a funnel cloud, and I go on a last-minute ho-hum so-what chase in my figurative backyard and see one on a day when little or no severe weather was forecast! When the radar started lighting up early this afternoon I decided to invest another hour of vacation time and headed out the door for a local chase / spotting expedition. As I eased my way eastward through King George courthouse I noticed several updrafts building so I aimed the chasemobile at a favorite viewing spot about 3 miles west of there. At ~1500 I noticed scud rising into a lowering cloud base just east of my position so I videoed it and snapped a bunch of still photos just in case rotation made an appearance. (Still need to edit that video.) Nothing exciting happened by 1530 so I turned the car and the cameras around to face southwest, where I could see a rain-free base between two separate cells. As I was paying attention to an interesting feature in the left of the video field of view I suddenly noticed at ~1542 a vertical tube in the center of the view extending most of the way to the ground. Voila, a rope funnel! As I hurriedly searched for the NWS Sterling storm report number on my cellphone the funnel morphed into a wedge, but I never was able to confirm debris underneath it to prove a tornado had happened: I finally found the right number via a phone call to my wife and called in a spotting report to Sterling, but the met there seemed a lot less excited than I was. What happened was this storm had caught up with the retreating warm front that was over our area. The resulting shear - although not terrific - was enough to spin out at least one funnel, perhaps two (one may have occurred to the right of the original rope funnel). Again, another Virginia surprise!
Okay, I am beating a dead horse...I admit it. After some more thought I decided to investigate the 13 May power flash we videoed to see if it was realistic to assume that was from the tornado that hit Anadarko OK that night. Per the map above we pulled off Rte 281 a mile north of Hinton OK, faced south, and started the videocamera at ~2050 CDT. At ~ 2054 the videocamera picked up a power flash that we didn't notice via the MK 1 eyeball given the prolific lightning show in front of us. The official SPC tornado report of an EF2 is marked 2122 (~28 minutes after the powerflash) and mentions that the tornado developed near the town of Gracemont and moved south along Highway 281, eventually striking the southeast side of Anadarko.
Gracemont OK is 25 miles by road south of our location, making it 22-23 miles straightline distance from the camera. Assuming a southward storm motion of 15 mph the tornado would have traveled ~7 miles in 28 minutes, meaning at the time we recorded the powerflash the tornado was ~16 miles south of us (23-7=16). So we did "see" a tornado this trip to the Alley...and this analysis vindicates our decision to call off the chase after it got dark. I'm a daytime chaser, not a nighttime one!
Current radar shows a healthy convective line headed generally in our direction. If it holds together and gets close enough I may scoot out to observe, especially if there's any lightning involved. Meanwhile I'm feeling empathetic toward both the Vortex 2 team and the Virginia Tech chase team given the dearth of decent storms in Tornado Alley. Given that we actually chased 5 out of 9 possible days during our recent chase trip out there our weather pattern was better than the current one for storms. I'm still disappointed at not seeing a verified tornado out there (unless you count the power flash we picked up on video the evening of May 13th), but I have my fingers crossed for some more chasing here in Virginia. (SOON!!!)
Even though the chance of decent storms today was slim I gave in to the temptation to head west early this afternoon as a few updrafts hovered near the Blue Ridge. By the time I got to Culpeper these had fizzled dramatically and I was left with a decision as to what to do next. So, I took the opportunity to visit a rural cemetery where my dad and some of his family are buried. As a veteran of both WWII and Korea he laid his life on the line for us and was one of the blessed ones that returned to have a family. A lot of folks never made it back, and those were the ones he called "heroes"...
This is another look at the downed powerpoles we came upon during our Texas panhandle chase. One pole had snapped off during the strong outflows from the storms we were watching, thus dragging down a series of successive poles and shutting down power to a startlingly wide area. Almost an hour later we stopped at a town a number of miles southeast of here for some much-needed gasoline and were thwarted by the lack of power, leading to some finger crossing that we could reach the next town without having to push. Here's what a portion of the outflow looked like:
As we sweated out our trip south to find gasoline we just had to stop and snap pictures of the storms retreating eastward in the late afternoon sunshine. This view, and the sunset to the west, was worth the chase all by itself.
Tried to post this directly but wasn't successful, so here's the link for a shaky hand held video of a rotating Kansas wallcloud taken during our 15 May chase. It's sped up 4x. (This is why I use a monopod mount for the videocamera most of the time.)
This is another 4x video of rotation we observed that same day further south in Kansas. Watch the top center of the frame...this was so close I couldn't tilt the videocamera up high enough.
A few vidcaps from just south of the approaching squall line from a no-name dirt road in extreme northern Oklahoma. I labeled the last three CG explosions because that's what they look like in the video.
Now back home it seems like this chase was a long time ago; in fact it was just yesterday! We did start out in Pratt watching updrafts build along the approaching cold front, and then began leap-frogging east and south to stay ahead of the growing storms. This photo was from relatively early during the development: As we continued east and south from the Pratt vicinity we came across more chasers as this wall cloud began wrapping up and the storm started spitting out artillery-quality lightning/thunder couplets: As the storms grew and coalesced into an ominous line we kept ahead of it and continued to stop and watch other lowerings: Winding around on dirt roads (can't always believe the maps regarding pavement) we pushed southward and crossed the state line into northern Oklahoma and began to see members of the Vortex 2 team. Even tho' we were under a tornado watch I didn't see much hope for tornadoes given the linear nature of the storms and the outflow dominance (some reports of winds over 70 mph near our location at one point) but we wished them well as we watched the outflow build under the fantastic cloud formations: It was a very eventful chase, but we were shut out again from seeing a tornado in Tornado Alley. Oh well, the chase season isn't over with here in Virginia!
Currently sitting in a hotel in the northern portion of OKC while the line of storms we chased all afternoon finally catches up. The outflows from this line were incredible, with reports of 70 mph winds in some of the areas we passed through. I took some awesome video of the 3-dimensional clouds rolling directly overhead as well as some of the greenage we saw, but I haven't dumped it onto the computer yet. We also saw a couple of wall clouds including one I felt certain was going to get its act together and possibly drop a funnel, but it never did. We also saw a portion of the Vortex 2 team, including a radar truck and bunches of roadside meteorological stations. Very eventful day, but no tornadoes. Tomorrow is the final run down I-35 to Dallas to catch my flight, so I probably won't dump off pictures or edit videos from today until I get back. It's been fun, but it's not the end of chasing this year as I'm sure I'll get more chases in back home.
Edit: We just had a burst of pea-sized hail. Looking at the radar there may be more to come.
Currently near Pratt KS, almost underneath the cold front. Updrafts going up quickly, so cap must be breaking. We're heading east and will turn south to stay ahead of the NE/SW oriented line and watch as the storms fire.
It's official; we're targeting Pratt as our epicenter of convective mayhem today. The models and local forecasts are all calling for the cap to break between 1300 and 1600 local time today in southern and central KS, and the convective potential and shear values are favorable for supercells during the early stages of today's events. Toward dark the storms will likely congeal into a squall line and then into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that will cover a broad area with heavy rain, wind, and lightning. That means we'll probably cut off the chase near dark and scoot south to Oklahoma City where we have hotel rooms awaiting us for a quick nap before getting a relatively early start tomorrow for the run to the Dallas/Ft Worth airport.
Meanwhile this is a photo of an earlier version of a wallcloud on the 13 May storm we were tracking southward in Oklahoma. I've enhanced it to show the updraft as well as the gathering scud underneath. This view doesn't show the striations we noticed that indicate a rotating updraft, but they were there.
This is an enhanced version of the possible powerflash vidcap in my previous post, showing that the feature indeed is very bright. This could be video evidence of a tornado in the distance: possible, but not definite.
My son and I have a standing agreement that if you target Pratt Kansas for a chase you won't be very far from severe weather, including tornadoes. My brother and I may be testing that postulate tomorrow as it appears that we will be targeting that general area. I will finalize the exact target tomorrow morning using the overnight model runs and forecasts, hoping for a definite Plains tornado catch before we beat feet down I-35 toward Dallas for my mid-day Saturday flight back home.
Since the severe stuff was to be in west central TX today and central KS tomorrow we decided to not yoyo up and down I-35 and instead headquartered here in downtown Wichita for the day. The downtown area has been revitalized and is a very pleasant place to spend time. I've been reviewing video from last night and have captured some very interesting frames from the last video segment I shot after dark. Looking south, the top two frames appear to show a wide feature resembling a wallcloud, and the bottom frame contains what looks like a powerflash (circled) that is not in any of the several hundred frames I've examined. This storm did produce a suspected tornado about 45 minutes after we abandoned it, and these frames may be proof that the tornado had formed while we were watching. Interesting...and another reason we don't chase much at night. None of this was visible to the naked eye!
We didn't quite make it to Ponca City today. After 7 hours on the road from Lubbock we pulled off I-35 north of Oklahoma City onto the exit for Stillwater at 1600 local time and never went any further north. We decided to sit there and wait for the cap to break. It did, with towers going up around 1730 along the cold front ~ 50 miles to our west, so we moved in that direction on local roads. Finding a spot along a relatively quiet (with the exception of a few locals and a bunch of chasers) north/south highway we parked for a while as one cell gathered its strength a few miles west of us. As it had a hail marker on it we ensured that we weren't in the path of the hail core while we watched the CGs lance down and listened to the thunder echo around us.
Not seeing much in the way of organized circulation in this cell (which wound up with tornadic circulation later!) we pulled up stakes and headed south to catch the next storm in the line, which was the "tail-end charlie" of the entire frontal line. We hop-scotched through several vantage points and finally watched as this one showed some circulation: Keeping ahead of the heaviest rain we continued south and found several places to marvel at the lightning display and the deep bass of the thunder. We finally did see a significant wallcloud from two different vantage points: On a couple of occasions this complex exhibited a tornado vorticity signature on radar, but we didn't see anything more than these views before the rain and darkness set in. We tried to follow the storms after dark to see if we could catch a glimpse of any circulation via lightning flashes but the rain was too heavy. So we called in a day, found a hotel and food, and are settling in for the evening. Tomorrow's initial target: Wichita. There may or may not be chaseable storms tomorrow, but we liked the idea of getting set up for Friday's chase in southcentral Kansas.
I had thought last night that we'd be heading for southwest OK today, but this morning's models views and forecast discussions have led me back to the north central OK target of Ponca City. There is a cold front pressing southward with its attendant upper level support, and convection should start firing there between 4-5 pm. A Moderate Risk - as shown above - can be a good thing for chasing, so we'll keep our fingers crossed.
We started out this morning in Lubbock TX and wound up back here tonight. It's late so this is just a quick update on today's chase. We did chase the dryline setup - something I've dreamed of doing - and had a good time doing it. The above photo shows scud underneath our selected storm's disorganized mesocyclone; we may have witnessed one high-based funnel but aren't sure enough to call it that. The main features on this storm were severe hail (which we successfully avoided) and strong outflow winds (which we couldn't avoid). This is one of a number of photos I snapped of the incredible dust front kicked up by the winds that were measured at over 60 mph. At one point while we were trying to stay ahead of the gusts the entire western horizon behind us went brown and black. Since we knew we couldn't avoid it we eventually parked and let it wash over us. This was the result on the road on which we chose to speed eastward to keep up with the complex. This pole was snapped off by the outflow and pulled down several poles downstream, making for some interesting shoulder driving by the few vehicles (mostly other chasers!) that passed this way. The other effect was cutting off power to areas to our east, which we found out when we tried to stop for gas. As "our" storm faded off into the east while we sped southward in search of gasoline we stopped and snapped photos of the incredible coloring we witnessed. This is one of the views.
Tomorrow's forecast has changed a bit, so our target may not be where I thought it would. I'm now thinking the Lawton OK area, but I'll refine that tomorrow morning based on what I see in the models and forecasts. Right now it's time to get ready for bed!
Currently sitting here in Floydada TX watching storms go up along the dryline. The trick now is to pick the storm we want to go after, and we're on the verge of doing that. Also under an MD now (above graphic). Wish us luck!
Forget Liberal KS as a chase target for today. Overnight model runs came in showing the cap weakening along the dryline just east of I-27 in the TX panhandle, so our new target is....Ralls TX, about 30 miles east of Lubbock. Since we are now in Lubbock that's a serendipity we hadn't counted on, so much so that we've booked reservations here at the same hotel for tonight. Actually we'll hang around Lubbock for a while to wait for the oppressive dense fog to clear out (presence of which is due to the frontal boundary retreating northward as a warm front) and see exactly where the dryline sets up.
This is exciting since I've always wanted to do a dryline chase in the TX panhandle and it looks like today will provide that opportunity. The SPC's latest Day 1 convective forecast shows a 5% tornado probability in our immediate vicinity, the only spot in the country with that designation. This has a good and a bad side: the good side is that we are perfectly positioned for a possible tornadic supercell, and the bad side is that the hordes of Vortex 2 vehicles and other Plains chasers will be converging on the same area. I have a feeling that chaser convergence will happen today in a big way.
To be honest, the title isn't totally true. There were storms in Texas today...just not where we could (or were willing to) get to them. This morning we left Midland and moved down to Ft. Stockton on I-10 in extreme western Texas in hopes of - once again - escaping the low clouds and easterly winds associated with the pesky front hanging over the state. We hung around town for several hours watching radar and satellite views, but the only storm that fired was within striking range of the Mexican border. The base was so far south that the nearest radar view could only see the very fringes of precipitation. I also watched a cumulus line just east of us that I thought represented a subtle boundary but absolutely nothing happened with it by 1700 local time. So, we hoisted anchor and beat feet northward to Lubbock where we are currently holed up for the night. My target for tomorrow is Liberal KS where everything looks right for some decent severe cells except....for a strong cap. I'm praying that the cap will break before dark in southwestern KS and give us a good storm or two to chase. Off to bed and dreams of mesos and wallclouds dancing in my sleep!
Sitting here in the hotel room in Midland TX I've been vacillating between two undesirable choices: (1) Head south to the Ft.Stockton area and chase expected late afternoon / evening convection and then face a five hour drive north to Lubbock to set us up for another five hour drive on Tuesday to reach southwestern Kansas. (2) Blow off chasing again today and head north to Amarillo (a 4 1/2 hour drive).
Since I don't think my tortured stormchaser soul could handle blowing off two days in a row I think we'll take door number 1 and just suck it up for a late night arrival in Lubbock tonight. This accursed stationary front has screwed up chasing again unless we want to do the deja vu thing and go after more storms along the Red River under the gloomy overcast. (NOT!) Thus our choice between bad and worse options.
Meanwhile these two shots are video captures from Friday's chase in Oklahoma. As we chased the storm east along back roads we caught glimpses of possibly two different funnels from the same wallcloud: Both vidcaps have been edited to enhance the contrasts to better show the feature. We tried desperately to get closer but ran out of road. All this occurred before our night-time lightning chase for which I posted a videoclip earlier.
We finally reached clear blue skies and warm temperatures as we continued west on I-20 into the distinctive High Plains of west Texas. The temperature here today in Midland TX was over 90 degrees, a far cry from the overcast 60's we left behind in Weatherford this morning. However the only storms that fired this afternoon / evening were another 3 hours from us and south of I-10; in fact one of them currently is tornado warned (Aaaaaaghhhh!). We had already decided we wouldn't go that far south, so we did what all good chasers do when being shut out...we went to the movies. Tomorrow looks a bit better for chasing pending the latest model runs. Based on what I've seen to date our target for tomorrow will be Crane TX, about half way between I-10 and I-20. The main problem with that target is that we need to spend tomorrow night in Lubbock, which is 3 hours to the north. That will position us for a run up the Texas panhandle on Tuesday since I'm thinking we need to get to the Liberal KS vicinity by early afternoon...that's about a five hour drive. The reward should be storms firing near a bulge in the dryline, an experience I have yet to partake of. I am anxious to see the analysis and models tomorrow morning!
With the front having pushed much further south into Texas than expected the prospects for chasing today in west Texas are slim. If we realllllly wanted to we could probably chase again in northeastern Texas under the low overcast, but then again, no thanks. The models seem to show that the only convection that will happen today in the western part of the state will be over the Big Bend country near the Rio Grande...and yes that is very near Mexico. Neither of us is willing to go that far, so we're planning to mosey down I-20 toward Midland in hopes that the front will get pushed back north, we'll see some sun (I'm very tired of overcast as it reminds me of the past week in Virginia), and a lone storm or two will bubble up within our reach. That's probably as good as it gets today. Tomorrow actually looks slightly better in west Texas for storms, and then Tuesday I may get my first panhandle dryline chase as a new system marches across the Plains. Keeping our fingers crossed here in west Texas!
Well, neither one of us wanted to chase northeastern TX today but that's where the only activity was. The MCS that formed over southeastern OK and extreme western AR extended a line of storms along the Red River that contained both heavy rainers and hail producers. All this was north of the cold front, meaning we also fought a gloomy overcast that reduced visibilities. The overcast coupled with the east Texas rolling and treed countryside conspired to remind me of Virginia chasing: difficult at best, and impossible under marginal conditions. We never were able to see any of the updraft structure as it was hidden by the overcast so the only way to experience the storms was to stay close enough to examine the fringes, which meant that we spent almost the entire chase in rain. Thus, we were stuck in the chasemobile most of the day which accounts for the myriad aches and stiffness both of us have tonight. The picture below (taken from inside the chasemobile underway) shows the southern edge of one cell with its chaotic scud: We did experience street flooding in Paris TX where this picture was taken from underneath a drivethru bank overhang that we utilized while pea-sized hail rattled its way to the ground: Realizing that (a) the rain and overcast gloom wasn't going to let up anytime soon and (b) we hadn't eaten anything since breakfast (it was now after 5 pm) we stopped at a local joint for a bite and to wait out the passage of this particular cell. Based on models and SPC forecasts we decided to target the Midland TX vicinity tomorrow so after dinner we fled southwestward to our current abode in Weatherford, about 30 minutes east of downtown Ft. Worth just off I-20. The odds aren't really high that we'll see convection out west, but the forecast for more crudfest storms in east TX didn't appeal to either of us. We'll take our chances...
Currently speeding east on I-30 in NE Texas trying to get into position on what looks like a developing MCS. We are under a severe TS watch, so things could get exciting shortly. After we chase this for a while we'll drop south to get on the warm side of the front and catch some later afternoon convection...at least that's the plan!
Note the whitish lowering in the center of this picture; this roughly corresponds to an area of rotation on the southern storm of the two we were engaged on. This convinced us to head further south and wind up where the coyotes howl...
This feature had exhibited wall cloud tendencies, but we let it go eastward without chasing as there was a very large hail signature on radar not far south of our location. Other photos and videos to follow as I have time (and broadband) available to so so.
Closeups of 28 May funnel(s). Per a prior posting I suspect this was actually a tornado (ground touchdown) given that the visual funnel stretched at least 2/3rds of the way down. But I saw no debris underneath this feature, so I have no proof.
