Probably no "maydays" needed on May Day

Models still show some convective potential in the region tomorrow, but not many other severe weather factors exist. So, we'll probably see some thundershowers but no severe storms. South of Richmond it looks like there could be some action Saturday, but at this juncture I don't know whether I'll be able to chase that day or not.
The next chance to chase before I head out to the Plains may be Tuesday according to the Sterling forecast discussion this afternoon. Trusting models this far out is a bit dicey, but hey, nothing beats a good May chase!

May Day chase here?

Local forecasts are calling for a cold front to ooze through here tomorrow (Wednesday) and stall near the North Carolina line before pushing back north of our area on Friday. This would put us firmly in the warm sector, and the above graphic shows some CAPE that afternoon. Winds aloft look like they'll be moderate but not strong and shear values aren't great, so at this point severe weather doesn't look likely. But, things can change!

29 April Plains chase target

My target for tomorrow would be just north of Plainview TX in mid-late afternoon. The models look like they're predicting a dryline bulge in that area along with high CAPE (convective potential) levels, so that's where I'd locate by 3:00 pm tomorrow afternoon out there.

April 25th target

I confess to being lazy last night and not looking at models, but I had been thinking about northwestern OK as a target location (Woodward again?). The forecast discussion sounds like the storms in this area will initiate late this afternoon into the evening, but the potential for tornadoes looks pretty good.
Meanwhile we here in Virginia are under a "See Text" 5% chance for severe storms. Nothing impressive, but if a storm is available when I am this afternoon I'm not averse to giving chase...

Oh yeah, watch out Beatrice NE!

Radar-indicated rotation is circled in this doppler image of a storm approaching Beatrice NE. Told ya that was a good chase target today!!

New chase territory!

Space tornado article

Cool! Can you imagine chasing these?

Target 24 April: Beatrice Nebraska

I confess...I did see Beatrice mentioned as a possible target on another chaser's blog. However, after reviewing models and an Omaha forecast discussion I decided to jump on the bandwagon. With a cold front pressing southeast, plenty of moisture, and lots of CAPE (convective potential) Beatrice looks like a good epicenter for southeastern Nebraska. We'll find out tomorrow if my practice target was a good one. Need to get into top chasing mode before heading out to the Plains in May!

Meanwhile I missed all the low-topped hailstorms that traversed northern Virginia the past couple of days. I did look at a couple of cells from afar but I wasn't impressed enough to fire up the chasemobile and trump my other plans. More activity coming our way next week? One model is hinting at convection Wednesday afternoon, but that's still a long way off.

21 April Plains prediction

Based on models and SPC predictions I picked Dodge City KS as today's target location. Radar depictions over the past few hours have indicated a number of hailstorms in that area so I feel vindicated. The next chase day out there would be Friday somewhere in southeastern Nebraska, with probable followon chases Saturday and Sunday in Kansas. I'll look at the models and pick a target later...

Wrapup of 20 April chase

The day started with SPC slotting our area under a Slight Risk, with a 5% chance of tornadoes. I had already decided to invest a couple of vacation hours and head out just after lunch, but my eyebrows and my interest level both rose when the SPC upped the tornado probabilities to 10%. The retreating warm front was slowly pushing northward and I knew I had to be south of it, so I motored down to the Carmel Church area just off I-95 where I logged into the internet to watch conditions and await the arrival of the newspaper folks who were to undergo their chasing initiation. By 1600 the overcast had thinned and blue sky was peeking through but the main area of strong convection stubbornly remained to our south and east amid territory I tend to avoid chasing in. Undaunted, I led our two vehicle convoy westward to Montpelier to await initiation of convection there. The towers did start going up there after a while and we moved several miles westward to get a better view. At this new location we witnessed mammatus as storms grew around us, which was a good sign of severity. My son called and mentioned that new cells were going up even further west, so we jogged northwestward through Mineral and stopped at Wares' Crossroads where we saw the back edge of the storms with very cool air and chaotic winds. The photo below shows an area of rotation that tried to get organized:

These cells were pushing northeastward at 30+ mph so we jumped onto State Route 208 and leapfrogged northward almost to Post Oak where we stopped and saw this:
The scud underneath this back edge was interesting but never organized. At this point our chasing convoy parted ways and I moved all the way to New Post where I watched this storm complex as it continued eastward while a new storm built behind me. I was content to experience the lightning and video some of the cloud motions before calling it a day. Not the most productive chase, but it was worth the effort.

To chase, or not to chase....don't think so!

Given the cold pool of air overhead the SPC has us in a 5% "See Text" severe weather area, but I'm not planning to go any further than to walk out the door and snap a photo or two. The radar is showing a line of showers approaching the vicinity, but none are exhibiting enough interesting characteristics to coax me back into the car. The upper level shortwave causing this activity is still well to the west and isn't supposed to reach the Blue Ridge until near sundown, at which time the existing showers will probably lose their "ooomph" (that's not an official term). So, maybe we'll get a sniff of lightning and thunder out of this, but nothing like yesterday's storms. I'll post another photo or two from that event later this evening.

20 April chase

Suffice it to say that today's chase was an interesting contrast, especially since it included a reporter and a photographer from the local paper . We were under a tornado watch but the best early afternoon storms fired south and east of Richmond, not exactly chase territory. Later storms rolled through the Fredericksburg area with large hail and frequent lightning. Where were we? Between both sets of storms. To be fair we did see some mammatus and we did see the rear of the above storm complete with interesting cloud motions (area of rotation is circled in the radar view above). So it wasn't exactly a bust, especially when I caught up with one of the Fredericksburg storms near New Post on the way home and was able to sit quietly for a while and enjoy the lightning show. More to follow later...

Monday afternoon chase

It looks like tomorrow afternoon will find me out chasing...the question is exactly where to target. Without more fine-grained model analysis I am currently thinking Thornburg, which would give me several road options. However I will have to check the short range models tomorrow for both timing and location indications. There is supposed to be a dry slot working its way into our region to provide clear skies and thus convective heating, so I will be watching the radar as well. I would like to be in place by 2:00 pm, but we'll see how conditions develop.
Meanwhile it looks like my Plains chase target for yesterday would have been good, since several lines of severe storms passed through northwestern OK yesterday. The biggest differences out there vs. back here are less trees, less traffic, and flatter terrain, so storms are easier to track for longer periods of time.

Change of location for today, VA chase Monday?

I was finally able to get to the models page I prefer and I've modified my target location if I was chasing in Tornado Alley today. I've moved it westward to Woodward OK based on the model data showing storms breaking out near the TX/OK panhandle line by early afternoon. Storm reports from yesterday did show some hail reports near my target location, so I guess it would have been a decent chase day.

Now, switching to Monday back here in Virginia, this model shows the eastern sections of our state with a shot at some decent convective potential in the afternoon. In fact the SPC has us under a Slight Risk, with a 30% probability of severe weather; that is sometimes enough to force an upgrade to a Moderate Risk. I won't really get stirred up about chasing Monday until tomorrow's forecasts and model runs come out, but this could mean I need to invest some more vacation time Monday afternoon!

Email problems

If you've emailed me at chris@cjwhite.us please be patient. I seem to be having challenges accessing that server. I will get to it eventually!

April 17th results, April 18th forecast

According to the latest SPC storm reports there haven't been any severe reports near my target for today (Hugoton KS), but radar views earlier in the day had a number of storms passing near the town. Also, that area is now under a severe TS watch.
Based on the limited data I can find (for some reason my typical forecast model websites aren't behaving tonight) I would target Ponca City OK late tomorrow morning. After that the weather over the Plains looks to settle down for a time, but meanwhile the SPC has the Mid-Atlantic looking at some severe conditions this coming Monday. Not being able to check out the models to my satisfaction I can't be sure, but it looks like we have an opportunity for some convection that afternoon. Wait and see....

Frost?!! But it's April!!

Could you hear the whine in the title above? The weather this month has been so wet and cold that I'm not sure if pollen or mold is causing everyone's allergies to kick up. At any rate storm chasing is off the radar screen for the immediate future as the models don't hold much chance for storms. There is a wee bit of convective potential forecast for early next week, but it's associated with a system that is coming through at night so I don't put much hope in it.
I have started practicing my target area forecasts in the Plains for our upcoming chase trip, and today I was pretty close given my afternoon target area near Plainview TX (between Lubbock and Amarillo). We'll see if tomorrow's "X" marks the right spot as I have targeted the southwestern Kansas hamlet of Hugoton based on the available road system there plus the convective potential, wind shear, and moisture forecasts.

A soggy upcoming week, but no storms for us

The forecast for Northern VA over the next few days looks very soggy with non-Springlike temperatures. This is due to a stubborn frontal boundary just south of us coupled with a high pressure ridge just off the coast providing a cold air damming setup. This means low clouds, off-and-on rain (when it's not drizzling), and cool temperatures guaranteed to soak into one's bones. The warm air and storms will be shunted well south of us - again - and after tomorrow morning sunshine will be in short supply until Thursday. We could get up to an inch or more of precipitation this week to help alleviate the dryness and wash pollen from the air, so that's the "good" news. But, I really do hate cold air damming...

Uh-oh! Watch out at Turner Field!

This tornado signature looks like it's right over Turner Field!

Hang on Atlanta! Word is hail is falling at Turner Field where the Braves are (supposed to be) playing.

Impending Atlanta tornado?

Downtown Atlanta is getting ready to be pounded by a strong supercell with indicated rotation. Look at the two blue circles in the above doppler screen shot where the green and white pixels are adjacent to the browns and reds. This is very strong rotation at the rear of these storms, possibly indicating 2 separate tornadoes. Keep an eye on the weather down there!!!

First SPC High Risk of the spring

Stormchasers live for such days, but the rest of the population needs to keep an eye on the sky and an ear to the weather radio. This could be a setup for strong long-track tornadoes in the Deep South. Don't think we'll get anything around here during daylight hours, but we may still hear a rumble of thunder tonight along with the rain headed this way. If this High Risk area was a couple hundred miles closer I might have been tempted to take a road trip today!

Thunderstorms possible tomorrow

Looks like any severe weather in Virginia tomorrow will be well south of us, but we still might get some thunderstorms here in the area as the models show a slight bit of instability. A low pressure center is forecast to pass almost overhead tomorrow night, so we should get some rain out of this system...good news for allergy sufferers as this should wash out a lot of the floating misery out of the air. As far as the storms go, if timing works and a reachable cell looks worth the effort, I may try an intercept.

No chase...but a cold front approacheth

The heavy activity today got started mid-morning and was way off to our southeast, so I didn't get out for a chase even tho' a tornado watch was posted not far away. These early spring systems can be very inconvenient for chasing as they tend to come through either at night or - a la today - during the early morning. Regardless, I did get outside just before the actual cold front pushed through at 1600 and took some pictures from the Potomac River bank on the Virginia side of the Rte 301 bridge. The top picture is a view along the leading edge of the frontal cloud band with a soaring osprey in the upper left quadrant, and the bottom photo shows at least a hint of a lowering. Of course, that may have been due more to perspective (or wishful thinking) than to an actual cloud base feature. The time for proper chasing will come, but just not today.

Severe setup for tomorrow?

From this afternoon's Sterling WFO forecast discussion:

"SPC INDICATES SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I95. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL HINGE ON HOUR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN WORK
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...HOW MUCH SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING...AND HOW FAR...IF ANY...THE SURFACE
FRONT LIES BEHIND THE EARLY AM BAND OF CONVECTION."

Sounds like a typical early spring setup, involving lots of "maybe's". The latest model runs have come more into agreement that the cold front will crest the Blue Ridge around 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning and will cross I-95 in our vicinity around 11:00. That doesn't leave lots of time for (a) sunshine to destabilize the moist air ahead of the front or (b) me to get out of the office and get set up for a chase. I will be keeping a weather eye on the radar tomorrow morning, but I may only be able to squeeze in a last-minute intercept of any storms near the Harry Nice bridge across the Potomac River. If the front delays a few hours (as it did last Sunday) I may have more time for a chase, but I'll have to play that by ear.

Monday...another Northern Neck chase?

The models seem to be forecasting Monday to be a repeat of Friday, with a front plowing through the I-95 corridor early in the day and a chance for severe weather east of the interstate during the early afternoon. The top graphic shows the surface dewpoint and lifted index (a measure of instability at ~20,000 feet up) at 18Z (2:00 pm EDT). The negative LI values plus the moist air forecast east of the interstate supports the SPC's forecast for a chance at severe weather as shown in the bottom graphic. We'll have to keep an eye on the model updates, but it does look good...assuming I can manage to get away from the desk early enough Monday afternoon.

Last-minute Northern Neck chase

I knew an occluded front was due through the area early today, so I took my chase gear with me this morning. Even tho' I had a radar display updating on my computer I lost track of time and thus had to quickly dash out at 1130 (see radar view above) when I realized the front was almost upon us. As a result I had no time to establish a plan of action and wound up flying by the seat of my pants. This turned out not to be a good thing once I'd punched through the initial band and made a couple of bad navigational decisions. I couldn't get into position on the fast-moving storms and wound up struggling to get ahead of the front by zooming east on Virginia Route 3 toward Montross. Alas, the heavy rain and strong outflow hit just shy of that Northern Neck metropolis and I pulled off into a convenient driveway to let it go. The picture above shows the best view I obtained of the southern section of the front.

Where's the sun?

I left Virginia for the Florida panhandle this week for a business trip in hopes that I would see some warmer sunnier weather. Alas, such was not to be as that area of the "Sunshine State" was socked in with low ceilings, cool temperatures, and rain rates varying from annoying drizzle to thunderstorm-associated downpours. In fact the county I was in (Okaloosa) was tornado-warned Tuesday afternoon, but I was stuck in a meeting and couldn't get out to look. (It would have been a dicey chase at best as the visibilities sucked.) I left to return home this morning and missed the above hailstorm (the purple core above) which occurred several hours after my flight out. Good thing, too, as I might have had to deal with hail damage to a rental car.
As for tomorrow (Friday) my last peek at the local models showed the potential for some storms around here during early afternoon. The SPC Day 2 forecast indicates a "See Text" for us with storms forecast during a morning frontal passage, but the aforementioned models show the front gliding through later in the day. Either way I'm keeping an eye on the radar tomorrow just in case!