Uh, oh! Looks like snow!

Check it out...the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) has the I-95 corridor in Virginia in the bullseye for at least 4 inches of snow between Sunday morning and Monday morning. We haven't had much more than dustings this winter, but it looks like we're going to have our snow totals upped quite a bit this weekend. This, on top of the sleet and other wintry mess forecast for tonight, will make for an interesting entry into March. Oh well, my storm chase trip to Tornado Alley is only a couple of months away now!

Not much happening

Given the current weather patterns not much is happening in the chasing world. Even Tornado Alley is fairly quiescent, but I expect that to change in the next few weeks. I'm still negotiating for a chase trip out that way in May, but nothing concrete has set up yet (pun intended). Meanwhile, this picture is from our 2004 Great Plains chase. I snapped it in southeastern Colorado when a train decided to cross our field of vision as we were observing the storm in the background.

May chase trip to Tornado Alley?

I've been thinking...and that can be dangerous, but this time it has to do with another chase trip to the Plains. Since our prior family chase trips have generally proved "close but no cigar", I have analyzed them and concluded the following:

a. We have only chased out west during even-numbered years.
b. We have never chased over Memorial Day weekend.
c. We need to chase at least 8-10 days to provide enough potential to catch some good action.

Per the graphic above (excerpted from SPC storm reports over the past nine years), the 25th of May - Memorial Day this year - provides a pretty good climatological average for seeing action in the TX/OK/KS/NE corridor. Considering that the 24th or 26th of any of those years could also provide action seems to point toward Memorial Day weekend as the centroid of a contemplated chase trip. Now, if I can just convince my brother and figure out if I can afford it...

Severe Weather and book proof copy

Looks like far southwestern Virginia got brushed by yesterday's severe weather with a couple of hail reports down that way. It would have been nice to have had some of that action creep up this direction, but I was out of town anyway.

On another note the proof copy of my latest stormchasing book came in today. I may have a couple of tweaks to do once I thoroughly review it, but the most interesting thing that I noticed was that the manuscript also includes 30 pages of someone else's cookbook, complete with recipes! Being somewhat startled to find this I reported it to the publisher to have them rectify the situation. We'll see what transpires from here...

Upcoming weekend winter weather? Nope!

The models are diverging again this winter! One long term forecast (the GFS forecast for Saturday evening is above) shows an Alberta-clipper type storm bearing down on northern Virginia Saturday night into Sunday morning, dumping ~3 inches of snow on the region. The main competing model (the European model) shows nothing of the sort, with high pressure dominating the area. It looks like the National Weather Service has tossed out the GFS solution since the local forecast calls for both Saturday and Sunday to be mostly sunny with highs in the low 40's. It's getting to be pretty late in the season for us to see snow, altho' we have had significant accumulations from March nor'easters ('93 and'96 come to mind). Be that as it may, I'm now in the chasing countdown for early spring storms. Snow is definitely NOT on the agenda for chasing.

Latest book published!

I pushed the button today and published Volume Two of my chase chronicles. I have ordered my proof copy but won't receive it for a few days, so I can't verify that I've found all the mistakes yet. I can tell you that it is more photo intensive than the original book, and hopefully that's a good thing. It's also a bit shorter which makes it less expensive, which is a good thing.
If you want to preview the first few pages click on the badge at the right of this blog.

Storm chasing lessons learned

Here's another article I wrote for a stormchasing forum a while back. I'm posting it to help alleviate everpresent SDS.

LESSONS LEARNED

It has been said that wisdom is learning from someone else’s experience.

After several seasons of chasing both on the Plains and here in Virginia I confess that I have learned a number of lessons the hard way…i.e. by making my own mistakes and subsequently learning from them. I like to think that I have since matured in my thought processes and am more willing to listen to and learn from others. In that light I offer the following hard-won tidbits of chasing acumen for others’ benefit.

(1) Navigation: Ensure that you have detailed maps of the area you are targeting. During my rookie Plains chase we were caught out of position on a tornadic storm and wound up in a precarious situation involving large (and growing larger) hail and had almost no information about escape routes. We have since opted to use the paper DeLorme maps available for each state that show every available highway and goat path. Many tech-minded chasers use laptop-based applications that include a GPS capability. Just keep in mind that some of those goat paths can become very important if the storm turns the tables and chases you!

(2) Safety: Never assume a docile cell will remain that way. Here in the Mid-Atlantic average thunderstorms can “pulse” to severe levels more quickly than one would think, producing wall clouds, funnels, and even tornadoes. I have called in severe reports to the local National Weather Service forecast office on storms that were not previously warned. And another caution…be careful positioning yourself under an “inactive” wall cloud. Even though it may seem inactive it can reenergize very quickly with you at ground zero. That particular experience occurred during my rookie chase season here in Virginia, resulting in a high-speed getaway via narrow tree-lined roads to avoid a funnel that almost dropped on our heads! One last thought that applies to all chasers: remember the dangers of driving on wet roads and hydroplaning.

(3) Logistics: Plan ahead for fuel availability, especially on the wide open spaces of the Plains. It is truly an unsettling feeling to be in the middle of nowhere in the dark of night as you feverishly calculate the distance to the nearest town that might have an open gas station. (Yep, been there and done that too!) Spare tires should also be checked for proper inflation before they’re needed. Potty stops can also be problematic, especially for mixed-gender chase crews. Even so a roll of toilet paper can take care of most needs. That, and a general lack of modesty…

(4) Common sense: Despite all the technogeek tools available to us the use of common sense should still prevail. Yes, that software-based navigation program might indicate a route that heads in the direction you need to go, but can your vehicle handle a goat path that could be covered by mud or worse? In one of our Plains chases I was navigating our way through Kansas back roads via a trusty DeLorme map as darkness settled in. Somehow I missed a road intersection and as full darkness fell we found ourselves in the middle of open rangeland with no other lights visible anywhere on the horizon. That would have been okay except that we were on a dirt track in middle of what must have been several thousand head of cattle. Somehow we escaped without ramming any of them, but an application of common sense would have resulted in us reversing directions and heading back the way we had come before night fell.

(5) Appreciation: Another mantra upon which I keep refocusing is to avoid being wrapped up so much in the mechanics of the chase that I forget to notice what is around me. Sometimes it’s the uniqueness of the scenery in whatever part of the country I happen to be in. Many times it’s the weather features themselves that I love to stop and experience, like the rush of moisture-laden wind or the rolling thunder that follows a distant CG strike. It’s even the privilege of chasing with family - whether it’s my son (and now his wife), daughter, or brother – and spending time with them away from the pressures of everyday life. And sometimes we’ve even uncovered the inside story on what became of famous personalities, like the time we found that R2D2 of Star Wars fame had retired to a southwest Nebraska farm to serve as a pump cover. Who woulda thunk it?

To quote from an online chase author (me!): “After several years of chasing both on the Great Plains and in Virginia I can confidently conclude that stormchasing is a serious hobby worthy of pursuit by both the sane and the nearly so.” Forums provide a great way for the chasing community to share learning experiences, whether sane or otherwise. I am certain that I still have a lot I can learn from the chasing community.

Disappearing severity

The first radar image above shows the squall line at 2131 local time having cleared the Blue Ridge and maintaining its strength (as evidenced by the bright red reflectivity signature). The second image shows the line at 2157 as it neared the I-95 corridor, weakening and diffusing. Thus, even tho' a severe TS warning was issued for our immediate area we had no lightning, no hail, and likely no severe level winds. But it was cool to stand outside as the line approached and listen to the wind roar. It didn't cure my rampant SDS, but it helped as we face the imminent return of winter.

First MD of the season!

Alright!! We have our first Mesoscale Discussion (MD) of the 2009 chase season, and it looks like it will lead to a weather watch (probably a severe TS watch) in our region. Radar is currently showing a squall line over eastern WV associated with the approaching cold front. The main threat will be severe winds since there is very little instability to support hail, tornadoes, or even lightning. In fact, the Blacksburg WFO (weather forecast office) has already issued a severe TS warning for the area around Lexington VA, and our local WFO - Sterling - has issued a couple of TS warnings for the areas in West Virginia under their purview. Will I attempt a middle of the night intercept? Right now I don't know, but stranger things have happened...!

The first severe chance of 2009

Well now, lookie here. According to the SPC we have a 5% chance of severe weather associated with a cold frontal passage "sometime" Wednesday. Unfortunately the models are showing that sometime to be around midnight Wednesday for our specific area, meaning there won't be much (if any) instability to fuel storms associated with the front. The good news for Plains-based chasers is that the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk with a good chance of tornadoes for tomorrow in southeastern OK, northern TX, and western AR. The bad news for them is the rolling terrain, the thick forests, and poor road system in that area...wait, that sounds like Virginia chasing! Sorry western chasers, I don't have any sympathy for you this time!

Start of the Mid-Atlantic storm chase season

After my last post I became curious as to when the storm chase season began for us during the past few years. After perusing my chase logs (at www.cjwhite.us) this is what I found:

2003: 21 March
2004: 6 March
2005: 11 March
2006: 4 February (no March chases!)
2007: 2 March
2008: 8 March

Now, not all of these first chases were productive. As a matter of fact a couple of them were "wish chases" in the hopes of relieving a virulent case of SDS. But in general the chase season around here seems to begin in early-to-mid-March, and we're only four weeks from that. Hope springs eternal!! (Pun intended....)

[BTW: I know my website is juvenile and could be a lot fancier. Get over it.]

Okay, it's cold here in Virginia!

The local airport is currently reporting 14 degrees (F), while the forecast for tonight is for a low of 17. That doesn't bode well for warm weather folks like me, but at least the dew point is back up to 10 degrees so the low tonight won't get below that. Both yesterday and today were well below climatology for early February, with gusty winds and (obviously) low temperatures making life outside rather miserable. The good news is that this system is moving off the coast and the warmup begins tomorrow, with the weekend actually looking relatively toasty.
Long range models have pushed off storminess next week until Thursday, with a slight bit of instability showing up early that morning. Don't think it'll be anything to get excited about chasing wise around here, but the SPC convective forecast for this coming Sunday (shown above) may kick off the chase season in Tornado Alley. The buzz on chaser forums and blogs seems to indicate that a number of folks will be out on Sunday to dust off their gear and shake off winter-induced SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome). I still hold out hope for a Mid-Atlantic chase season kickoff in March, so patience is still the order of the day.

What are the odds that this is not a tornado?

I have posted a number of pictures from our 23 July 2008 Spotsylvania county chase during which we saw even more funnels and/or tornadoes than we originally thought. In the hopes of alleviating winter-time induced SDS (we did have almost an inch of snow this morning despite my forecast for 2") I went back through the original untouched pictures I took on that date and came across the above photo. It was taken at 8:17 p.m. local time, approximately 6 minutes after we witnessed a narrow funnel touch down about 4-5 miles east of our location. While continuing to snap photos I captured this image, for which I have darkened and enhanced the contrast to show what looks like a massive wallcloud or - more likely - a previously unidentified stovepipe funnel near the center. The feature shows a definitely different look than the rainshafts on both sides, leading me to conclude that it wasn't another rainshaft but indeed a funnel that looks like it has touched down, i.e. a tornado. If it hadn't been so near dark, if the traffic congestion and poor road system to our east hadn't been a factor, etc....we would have continued eastward to keep an eye on this feature amid the expanding rain area. But, as it was, we saw other funnels later that evening a bit further south in Spotsylvania county. The preponderance of severe weather that day still amazes me even months later.

February stormchase?

This graphical forecast from the GFS 228 hour projection shows a strong low pressure system steaming eastward, with the Mid-Atlantic - northern Virginia specifically - firmly in the warm sector. A bit of instability is also indicated in other views. It must be realized, however, that forecasts this far out are "wishcasts". Stormchasers afflicted with SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome) can succumb to flights of fantasy while gazing at such depictions. However, such long-range forecasts do provide an indication of broad weather patterns, and it certainly looks like our pattern might be changing from the January deep-freeze into more of an early spring stormy phase. We'll see!

Another Tuesday snow prediction

Here we go again, altho' the flip-flopping of the forecast models every 12 hours is wreaking havoc in weather forecast offices along the East Coast. Each successive run shows a substantial low pressure center, with one run moving the storm well east of the coast and the next run shoving it westward toward us. About the only thing the models agree on is that the precipitation will change from rain to snow sometime Monday night...none of the freezing rain / sleet mess. After a quick scan of the most recent model runs I have concluded that by lunchtime on Tuesday we'll have about 2 inches of snow on the ground. My only consolation is to note that the beginning of the Mid-Atlantic storm chase season is only about 6 weeks away!