Something that tops even storm chasing

And what could that be? Becoming brand new grandparents, that's what!! Our son and daughter-in-law had their first baby in the wee hours this morning, which officially renders my wife and I grandparents. Our grandson - Anderson John White - arrived at 1:22 a.m. EST, meaning there was very little sleep in the White House (south) last night...but that's okay, since some things are worth losing sleep over. Now, I wonder how soon I can teach him to say "tornado"...

Snowfall prediction: so far so good

Rather than fight the snow & ice on the roads today (and the inevitable traffic snarls) I decided that discretion was the better part of valor and stayed home. So far my prediction from Sunday looks good as it is 9:30 a.m., a pleasant windless snow is steadily falling, and we have at least 1.5 inches on the ground. A peek at radar showed the back edge of precipitation for this first system to be east of the Blue Ridge, so this period of snowfall won't last much more than another hour or so. But the next system is chugging our way with more snow, this time with some warm air intrusion aloft that will also provide sleet and freezing rain through tonight (oh, yay).
Since the surface low is supposed to track west of us we should wind up in the warm sector tomorrow with everything turning to rain, but I'm not sure exactly when that will occur. Thus, I doubt that I'll get an early start to work tomorrow since I'm not a fan of ice skating at all, whether on skates or in a vehicle.

Since we won't be seeing thunderstorms for a few weeks I've resorted to paying attention to the winter weather forecasts. The above NWS graphic shows us in the 10% probability region for 4 inches of snow (or more) on Tuesday. Wednesday's graphics are even more ominous for warm weather folks like me, since not only are we in the 10% probability area for snow again but we are also in the 10% probability region for significant ice accumulations. Looking at the forecast models we certainly will have enough moisture around to accomplish any of those scenarios, but as is usually the case in our area it all depends upon the temperatures. My best guess is for 3 inches of snow by midnight Tuesday, with maybe an additional inch by dawn on Wednesday and then turning to a mix of rain and snow during the morning hours. I think I'd better break out the snow shovel tomorrow night...

New storm chasing book coming along

I've been slaving over the Booksmart publishing software to get volume two of my storm chase chronicles ("Confessions of a Storm Junkie") into shape for submission to the Blurb publishing website. The original book covered the 2002 - 2006 chasing seasons, both here in Virginia and in the Great Plains. Volume two covers the 2007 and 2008 seasons here in Virginia coupled with a writeup of our Plains "mini-chase" in April 2008. This latest version deliberately has a lot more photos (of better quality too, given that I was using a 5 MP camera vs my old 2 MP) and should be shorter - and thus cheaper - than volume one.
I have to admit that I enjoyed the writing process more than I enjoy the publishing stuff, especially with the need to keep an eye on the appearance and readability of the contents. But, when it's finally ready for public consumption I know I'll feel a lot better about the work involved. Meanwhile, the whole process is proving to be a salve to the chaser's wintertime affliction: SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome).

Snow on North Carolina beaches?!!

Well, we missed the snow yesterday but North Carolina didn't! Circled in blue above is the snow remaining on the ground at 4:15 pm this afternoon. News media carried multiple images of snow on the beaches of the Outer Banks, something that doesn't happen very often. As for us here in northern Virginia the long range models are hinting at a snowstorm to follow the next Arctic air outbreak. If the solutions hold together as they are now we could see a significant snowfall next Tuesday night. I know a lot of folks would like to see that happen, but I'd just as soon not have to shovel it or drive in it...guess that comes from living in mainly tropical and subtropical locales while growing up as a military brat.

Expanding our Virginia storm chase territory

In an earlier post I hinted that we may be expanding our storm chasing into southern and south-central Virginia. The reason is that my son and daughter-in-law (and soon-to-arrive grandson!) are moving to Roanoke early this spring. As such we'll have to plan ahead in order to chase together, especially given that my son is starting a new job and will have a somewhat less flexible schedule...but there's always weekends!
Not being familiar with the Blacksburg WFO area we'll have to come up to speed on the best routes and regions to chase in that part of the state. I have picked up a hint from Kevin Myatt of the Roanoke Times (a fellow Virginia chaser) who indicated that when in doubt as to where to chase in southern Virginia just head to Danville. The open farm country and reasonable road system there combined with the climatology seems to provide good chasing territory. Even though that is a few hours south of here it provides an opportunity to cover an area of Virginia that appears to be relatively unexplored by chasers. I will still be chasing here in the northern part of the Old Dominion for the most part, but the storms down south better watch out!!

Below zero...here???!!!

The temperature this a.m. actually dropped to -2 (F) at the local airport! At the moment we're colder than Roanoke, as we are at 0 degrees and the airport there is at 4 degrees. The difference seems to be that we have been under totally clear skies all night while the areas southwest of here have been topped by a thin layer of high cirrus clouds which held in the "heat" and kept the bottom from dropping out of the thermometer. The longer range models do indicate that the upcoming week will be more seasonal with high temperatures reaching the 40's by Thursday. How cold is it when the 40's sounds warm....?

The Arctic blast

Hoo boy! The Arctic express blasted its way into the Mid-Atlantic today with strong winds and dry air. Anytime the dew point drops into the single digits (or even below zero) you can bet that a continental Arctic (cA) airmass has dropped in to visit. Besides the temperature drop, other notable features of such conditions are an increase in static electricity and - for me - a losing battle with very dry skin. One caution: even though it's very cold, drink lots of fluids. With this arid air in place it is easy to become dehydrated quickly.
[It also seems that the dry frigid air has short-circuited the surface weather station graphic above!]

No thank you!

Yes, I chase storms....in the warmer seasons, mind you. I would have to turn down an invitation to join these researchers from the University of Missouri, tho'. In true Southern vernacular there are words that do not belong in the same sentence, like "ice" and "fishing". "Chasing" and "thundersnow" are two others in the same category!

Winter comin' at us like a freight train

The forecasters (especially the television talking head types) are starting to use phrases like "coldest air in a decade" to describe the Arctic air coming our way toward the end of next week. I'm not certain that's anything more than an attempt to get us - the public - to watch their weather news, but the numbers for high temperatures projected for late next week are below freezing. For this southern boy that's C-O-L-D no matter how you spin it. Here in northern Virginia the normal highs this time of year are in the low 40's (F), so it looks like the thermal underwear will see action starting about Wednesday next week.
In the meantime I was glad to see that the BCS football championship game was a good one, even tho' the Sooners lost. Moreover, the Hokies of Blacksburg finally won a BCS bowl this year and that's a good thing, because they start the upcoming season against a potentially very angry Alabama team which lost its last two games this season. The good news is that the Hokies return most of their starters on both sides of the ball, given that this past year they were one of the youngest teams in the ACC.
Now, about that upcoming chase season...

Boomer Sooner

Sorry, no posting tonight! It's half-time and the BCS "championship" game is tied up 7-7. Whoever wins won't make any difference to the brouhaha awaiting the final college polls. When are we going to have a Division 1-A / FBS playoff?

GO SOONERS!

What will the 2009 storm chase season bring?

June 30 2008 Shelf Cloud, Fauquier county VA

Good question. Will this be a repeat of the very active 2008 Mid-Atlantic season which provided a number of eye-catching storms, or will this year resemble the drought years of 2005 & 2007 during which we were pretty much shut out? Only time will tell, of course, especially with the possible expansion of our chase territory into south central and southwestern Virginia (more about that in a future post). To bide my time until convection returns I have been working on volume two of my chase account "Confessions of a Storm Junkie" that will cover the 2007 and 2008 Virginia chases plus the April 2008 mini-chase in the Southern Plains. I am just about finished editing and am ready to begin the publishing phase using the software provided by the folks at Blurb.com. Hey, it's something to keep my mind off the winter doldrums!