The models seem to indicate that a cold front that was supposed to steam through here on Saturday has slowed and will likely pass through during the night. The above depiction shows a possibility of some precipitation entering the Shenandoah Valley by 8 pm Saturday and some decent CAPE (instability) and helicity (rotation potential) are also forecast for that time, meaning some storms could fire before dark. Additionally the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 convective outlook has that area under a small (5%) chance of severe weather for Saturday. Depending on how things look in the short-range models on Saturday - as well as how much the radar lights up - I may head up toward Winchester late that afternoon to catch some storms in the open farm country west of the Blue Ridge. I'm ready for some more action!
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Saturday evening storms?
The models seem to indicate that a cold front that was supposed to steam through here on Saturday has slowed and will likely pass through during the night. The above depiction shows a possibility of some precipitation entering the Shenandoah Valley by 8 pm Saturday and some decent CAPE (instability) and helicity (rotation potential) are also forecast for that time, meaning some storms could fire before dark. Additionally the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 convective outlook has that area under a small (5%) chance of severe weather for Saturday. Depending on how things look in the short-range models on Saturday - as well as how much the radar lights up - I may head up toward Winchester late that afternoon to catch some storms in the open farm country west of the Blue Ridge. I'm ready for some more action!
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