Forget Liberal KS as a chase target for today. Overnight model runs came in showing the cap weakening along the dryline just east of I-27 in the TX panhandle, so our new target is....Ralls TX, about 30 miles east of Lubbock. Since we are now in Lubbock that's a serendipity we hadn't counted on, so much so that we've booked reservations here at the same hotel for tonight. Actually we'll hang around Lubbock for a while to wait for the oppressive dense fog to clear out (presence of which is due to the frontal boundary retreating northward as a warm front) and see exactly where the dryline sets up.
This is exciting since I've always wanted to do a dryline chase in the TX panhandle and it looks like today will provide that opportunity. The SPC's latest Day 1 convective forecast shows a 5% tornado probability in our immediate vicinity, the only spot in the country with that designation. This has a good and a bad side: the good side is that we are perfectly positioned for a possible tornadic supercell, and the bad side is that the hordes of Vortex 2 vehicles and other Plains chasers will be converging on the same area. I have a feeling that chaser convergence will happen today in a big way.
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