Sunday, April 05, 2009

Severe setup for tomorrow?

From this afternoon's Sterling WFO forecast discussion:
"SPC INDICATES SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I95. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL HINGE ON HOUR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN WORK
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...HOW MUCH SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING...AND HOW FAR...IF ANY...THE SURFACE
FRONT LIES BEHIND THE EARLY AM BAND OF CONVECTION."
Sounds like a typical early spring setup, involving lots of "maybe's". The latest model runs have come more into agreement that the cold front will crest the Blue Ridge around 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning and will cross I-95 in our vicinity around 11:00. That doesn't leave lots of time for (a) sunshine to destabilize the moist air ahead of the front or (b) me to get out of the office and get set up for a chase. I will be keeping a weather eye on the radar tomorrow morning, but I may only be able to squeeze in a last-minute intercept of any storms near the Harry Nice bridge across the Potomac River. If the front delays a few hours (as it did last Sunday) I may have more time for a chase, but I'll have to play that by ear.

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