A chaser's tease

As I pontificated in a previous post, potential chase setups this time of year often turn out to be rather disappointing, and today was no exception. The widespread overcast ahead of the convergence zone / front minimized the instability, and all we had were a few wind gusts as the showers moved through. The SPC storm report talley indicates a grand total of one severe event (a wind report) today, and that was up in New Jersey. The good news is that I wasn't tempted to go out looking. Instead, I remained inside on a very gray day watching both college football (Hokies lost again!) and the radar simultaneously. I still haven't given up for the season, but next week's forecast of snow flurries for the mountains west of the Shenandoah Valley have put quite a damper on chasing expectations. At least tomorrow is supposed to be sunny and warm around here!

Slight risk for the Mid-Atlantic

Yep, things are continuing to progress. The SPC Day 2's are now calling for a slight risk tomorrow, bumping up the probabilities of severity from 5% to 15% for the region east of I-95. Their discussion used the "t" word again today, but the convective potential may be limited depending on the cloud cover earlier in the day. However the shear dynamics look pretty good so any storm that goes up has a good shot at rotating. Looks like I'll be haunting the radar tomorrow to point me in the right direction for an intercept. (Given the forecast for storm speeds I doubt I'll be able to keep up, so an intercept is the most likely scenario.)

The Hmmmmmm..... continues

Looks like the SPC agrees that the models are showing some severe potential for Saturday. The accompanying discussion actually mentions the "t" word (tornado), altho' with the above 5% probability graphic there doesn't appear to be a large chance of them. However, I will be awaiting tomorrow's Day 2 graphics to see how the models fare. A chance to chase in late October is nothing to turn one's nose up about.

Mid-Atlantic convection Saturday?

Both these model depictions show a decent amount (for late October) of mixed layer CAPE in the Mid-Atlantic sometime between early Saturday afternoon and early evening. Other views show significant wind shear (speed and directional) and helicity (rotation potential) predicted for the same time period. All this leads to an overall "Hmmmmmmm......" when considering Saturday's potential for severe storms. It's still a ways out, and these type of out-of-season setups tend to be disappointments for chasers, but...Hmmmmmmm....

No storms, and only a little rain

Our road trip last week involved driving through parts of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. The weather was gorgeous for the first part of the week, but by Thursday morning the cold front had passed through Lexington KY, leaving behind showers and low ceilings. We outran the front as we pushed through to Gatlinburg TN for a warm and comfortable Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday, however, dawned with low clouds, showers, and some fog that dogged our tracks on and off all day as we made our way to Blacksburg (Hokieland). The good news was that when we did have enough visibility to see the foliage in southwest Virginia it was much more colorful than anywhere else.
Oh, and the horse statue? That's Man-O-War, the most famous American horse of the first half of the 20th century. We're not really "horse people", but the Kentucky Horse Park and the surrounding beautiful countryside were worth seeing...

Disappointing fall foliage due to dry conditions

We've been out of town for a few days on a trip to Kentucky, and we'd hoped to see some gorgeous fall foliage as we crossed the spine of the Appalachians in West Virginia. Alas, such was not to be. There was color but not much of it, and what was there was very muted. Even the vaunted Kentucky bluegrass is more of a combination of dull green and brown. The culprit: the spreading drought. Even tho' tomorrow and Friday's forecast holds the promise of rain, there's not much moisture coming this way. Maybe next year...

October quiescence

We've had absolutely gorgeous weather here in the Mid-Atlantic the past week or so, with bright blue skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the 70's. This is the kind of weather most folks drool for, especially after a few weeks of summer's "three H's" (hazy, hot, & humid). Unfortunately we are in a bit of a drought as evidenced by the falling river levels; even the tropical spigot has turned off.
And, of course, a drought also means limited chase opportunities. We usually have a brief fall chase season here when strong cold fronts blast down from the northwest, plowing into moist air and triggering storms. However, it seems the best we can do lately is a couple of backdoor fronts slipping quietly down the East Coast. I'm keeping an eye on chasing potential at least through Veterans' Day as that seems to be the latest chase date in our region, but I don't see much potential over the next week.
Oh, and I'm already planning my 2008 chase narrative writeup, but I haven't decided whether or not I'm going to update and publish a second edition of my book ("Confessions of a Storm Junkie") over at blurb.com that incorporates the 2007 and 2008 chase seasons. I guess it depends on how bad SDS hits me this winter...