Tropical Storms a-plenty!

With Gustav poised to hammer the Gulf Coast almost 3 years to the day from Katrina, those of us here in the Mid-Atlantic better keep our eyes on Hanna. If this forecast track is anywhere close to accurate next weekend will be very wet at the least, with a very stormy scenario also possible. Keep your eyes on the skies!

The season is heating up!

As articulated in this graphic from the National Hurricane Center the tropical season is in full swing today. Here in the Mid-Atlantic we're still feeling the effects of the remnants of Fay, while several other systems (named and unnamed) are scooting across the Atlantic. From a storm chase perspective I'll be watching these for any potential chase opportunities here, with an eye toward remembering the 2004 Ivan tornado outbreak in Northern Virginia. I'll leave to others the pontificating and proclamation of shrill warnings about another Katrina scenario...

Rain from Fay by middle of next week?

Fay is stuck in a rut along with the Eastern Seaboard. The high pressure ridge that's been providing us September-like weather in mid-August is squashing her ambitions to head our way. We may see some of the moisture this next week, but forecasts are still very murky regarding timing. We need the rain, and it would be nice to chase some of our own "tropic thunder" given that storms result from Fay's approach. Wait and see...

No way Fay!

Given the high pressure ridge settling in over the East Coast it now appears that Fay (and her potentially beneficial rains) will be squashed to our south. During chase season out on the Plains such a high pressure ridge is ominously termed a "Death Ridge" because it kills any chances of storms. Looks like the Mid-Atlantic has its own version of the "Death Ridge" this week.

All the way Fay?

It appears that Florida and the southeastern U.S. has the first tropical system of the season to keep an eye on. The current NHC forecast track for Fay has it sliding just west of Florida's west coast and making landfall in the panhandle:
It's still early so this track will likely shift, but it seems that the Everglades could get some much needed rainfall. Meanwhile back here in the Mid-Atlantic I'll be keeping an eye on the potential for severe weather later in the week. Here's a current forecast for the center of Fay's circulation for next Friday afternoon:
This too is way early to count on such long range forecasts, but at least this shows (from the GFS model if anyone is interested) the circulation heading west of our area. That very well could mean that we'll be on the right side of the system to see rotating storms a la the remnants of Ivan in Sept 2004, during which northern Virginia experienced a tornado outbreak. Something worth watching...

Oops, missed one!

Given the lack of familiarity with the road system and the fact that I was navigating by myself, I can almost excuse myself from missing the funnel in these two pictures. Both were taken at 3:11 pm this past Sunday (10 August), and both have been heavily enhanced. They show a definite funnel that wasn't there in the next photo in the sequence that was taken a minute later. At the time the storm was just to the northwest of Rapidan, and I had just found the vantage point from which these were snapped. This was most definitely a funnel, but probably not a tornado. However, since I couldn't see the ground underneath it I can't rule out a tornado either. I blame only myself for being in too much of a hurry and not focusing on the fascinating events occurring right in front of me. Here's to not being in such a hurry next chase!

Too much traveling to chase today

Having been out of town all week (and arriving home waaaay too late last night) I wasn't really inclined to chase this afternoon unless the storms encroached a self-imposed 10 mile radius of the house. They didn't, so I didn't, and I have no regrets even with the current MD issued by the SPC for the Mid-Atlantic. Tomorrow may provide more chasing fodder, but then tomorrow's another day...

The Culpeper/Orange/Spotsylvania encore

When the models and forecasts all pointed to early convective initiation today I was able to rearrange schedules so as to leave home by 1230. My aim was to intercept a cell that had been severe (and even tornado) warned while still in the Shenandoah Valley, and I headed to Bealeton to scope out the situation. When I got there it was obvious I needed to drop south to get to the southern edge, so I drove down Rte 29 and turned onto a side road in the Brandy Station vicinity where I saw this wallcloud-like feature crossing the Blue Ridge:
Within a few minutes the storm became outflow dominant and the feature morphed into more of a shelf cloud that quickly faded:
Moving back out toward Rte 29 I heard a severe warning for a cell to my south, so I abandoned this weakening storm and plowed through some rain around Culpeper while noticing several lowerings on the south edge of this new target. In an attempt to stay out of the rain and get to the south side I detoured southeast down Rte 522 and then down a couple of pleasant back roads to the metropolis of Rapidan. With the storm bearing down on the town I began a frantic search for a vantage point where I could watch events unfold, and wound up with this view of the mesocyclone trying to gather scud to form a wallcloud:
After enjoying this view for several minutes I decided to keep ahead of the storm and sped down a couple more country roads to get over to Rte 20 and avail myself of better road options. On the way I had a couple of bad moments when the storm looked like it would intercept me versus the other way around. However it did give me this view which looks very much like a funnel:
Not sure this feature itself was rotating, but this portion of the storm was exhibiting rotational characteristics so this might be classified as a funnel...unfortunately I didn't stick around to watch as this was bearing down on my position at a pretty good clip. When I finally reached Rte 20 and turned eastward I was able to stay parallel to the storm's path all the way to Wilderness. By that time the overall system had weakened and I didn't see any more severe features. This was yet another decent late summer chase, capped off by another cell that passed over our house with some rain and a couple of good lightning/thunder couplets.

July 23 Spotsylvania funnels and tornado

Tomorrow may bring a chase per the forecast, but today I'm resting on my laurels regarding the 23 July tornado in northern Spotsylvania county. I actually took a progression of pictures that shows the runup to the tornado that I declared. Here we have the first photo taken at 8:09 pm from our moving vehicle headed eastbound on Rte 3:
After we reversed directions westward and found a viewing spot here is the sequence (all with a timestamp of 8:11 pm) that leads up to and includes the tornado:

Here's to tomorrow's chase...may it actually happen.

7 August "Wish" chase

Since we weren't under any watches or warnings I didn't make an effort to chase today, especially since I couldn't get home until after 5:00 pm. As we ate dinner at a local restaurant a cell passed by just to our south, spitting out 3 distinct and loud peals of thunder but little else. Thus as another system built to the south I was already busy mowing the grass and could do little except grind my teeth and take consolation from the fact that I knew the complex was over southern Caroline county, a site which can make the hardiest storm chaser cringe due to the woeful road system and the heavily treed countryside. I did give in to the urge to snap a few pictures after I finished the yard, but that was the best I could do. After all, it is August...

Not today!

Forecasts went out the window today. Firstly, the high temperature was nowhere near the 100 degree mark that some forecasters had trumpeted over the weekend. Secondly, even the SPC pulled in its horns and removed our area from their original slight risk forecast for severe weather. The mid- and high-level clouds emanating from convection in the Midwest were the biggest culprit in both instances, keeping us in shadow today and not allowing the sun to perform its normal early August bakeoff. So much for chasing today!

Potential August chase tomorrow

Not exactly excited yet about this potential as it all may happen near or after dark tomorrow. Haven't checked the models yet for timing; I'll get to that later this evening. But who knows? This chase season has been extraordinarily active here in the Mid-Atlantic and may keep on producing some interesting results. Whoda thunk we would see a tornado and multiple funnels on July 23rd (at least without a tropical system nearby)? Meanwhile it looks like my brother - who's in the Texas State Guard - is busy again this week with another tropical storm / hurricane approaching the Texas coast.

I'd rather have been chasing...

I missed today's chasing opportunities under a severe TS watch as I had the "privilege" of renting a truck, loading it with heavy furniture, then driving said truck 200 miles to my house and unloading said furniture. (Full disclosure: I did have help during both the loading and unloading process. However, tell that to my back and legs which are now complaining to the point that I'm planning to feed their desire for ibuprofen before stumbling into bed.) As I drove I saw a nice-looking anvil from a storm that seemed to be over the Shenandoah Valley. It turned out that this storm plowed across the Blue Ridge two hours after I noticed it and hit Orange and Louisa counties as a hailstorm while exhibiting decent rotation per radar images. If I had been in chase mode today that's the storm I would have been on, but such was not to be. Can't get them all!!