A closer look at funnel #3 from 23 July

After playing with this picture taken at 8:47 pm on July 23rd looking north from the Ni River Middle School off Catharpin Road in Spotsylvania county, I decided to delineate a couple of features that popped into view. Outlined in blue are the edges of the wall cloud, and outlined in red is the funnel that actually appears very close to the ground. If I could be certain there was debris under the funnel this would count as my second tornado of that day...however it was a bit too dark to tell. Either way I wish I'd had a videocamera with me!

27 July Spotsylvania/Caroline chase

As I indicated in yesterday's post I got out of the gate a bit too late yesterday. The storms began firing right around lunchtime and I wasn't able to head out until 1:30 pm or so. Given that the main storm was nearing my position I decided to barrel south, then west to come in on the south side and avoid the heavy rains. Unfortunately for me the complex continued to grow and by the time I got to Thornburg the rains hit. Thus I strayed further south on Rte 1, taking the Marye road to the west in extreme southern Spotsylvania county where I found a quiet farm road and took this picture of the very active leading edge (plenty of CGs and noisy thunder):

While I was there my son called but I was a wee bit too far off the beaten track and the signal wouldn't sustain a call. So as I headed back east toward civilization I called him and we rendezvoused on Rte 1 south before scrambling east on Marye road into Caroline county to keep ahead of the storms. During one of our photo stops we noticed a funnel-shaped feature near the treeline that appeared to be rotating:

I didn't call it in as we couldn't track it for very long before losing it behind the trees.
We eventually wound up in Bowling Green where we chose to let the system grind eastward into what we consider no-mans-land for chasers: heavily treed countryside and very inconvenient (and narrow) roads. Not a bad chase, but my son indeed had more success. Hopefully he'll post pictures soon.

Last night plus today's chase

Last night's storm that exhibited rotation basically stalled and died in place, bringing only light showers east of I-95. Today's storms fired early amid the throes of a prefrontal trough east of the mountains. I wasn't able to begin the chase until 1:30 pm and had to head south into southern Spotsylvania county to avoid heavy rains in order to see any notable features. My son, however, was able to head out earlier and saw some rotation and at least one funnel in central Spotsylvania. I'll post a photo or two later, but for now I doff the hat to my son's success.

Whoa! Saturday night rotation?

Is this rotation I see on a hailstorm heading toward Fredericksburg? It seems to be strolling down US 17 with a gleam in its eye...and its seems to be holding together pretty well even after sunset. Stay tuned!

Sunday?

Looks like tomorrow may bring yet another late July chase. Models are showing enough instability and shear in the Mid-Atlantic to provide some long-lived updrafts, and with enough luck a mesoscale boundary or two may form (outflow from previous storms, bay/river breezes, etc.) to provide some low-level shear and rotation. We shall see!

Spotsylvania funnel fest

After reviewing the nearly 100 photos I snapped during yesterday's chase I have concluded the following:

(1) This was a tornado at 8:11 pm (my fourth in Virginia chasing). I should note that the visible condensation pieces were rotating around the central circulation while rising rapidly:

(2) The last 45 minutes of the chase was a funnel fest.
(a) Looking east from the Wilderness intersection at 8:05 pm:

(b) A later funnel from the same wall cloud as the tornado (8:16 pm):

(c) A funnel looking north off Catharpin Road at 8:47 pm (backlit by lightning):

All this was after we thought we'd already had a really good chase, staying ahead of a fascinating approaching convective line in Culpeper county! Not bad for a late July chase!

Spotsylvania tornado?

While chasing this afternoon and evening my son and I chanced upon this scene looking northeast from the Chancellorsville area (map above):
This was the last in a series of 3 photos I hurriedly snapped at 8:11 pm. I called in a wall cloud and funnel report to the NWS Sterling office, along with a mention of a possible tornado. No warning was issued for this storm...not sure why. We had already seen another funnel as we headed east through the Wilderness Rte 3/Rte 20 interchange, so this wasn't a freak occurrence. In fact the parent wall cloud grew to significant size before disappearing behind a developing rain shaft:
This appears to be another example of rotation on a storm forming below the normal radar horizon for the Sterling radar. We certainly didn't dream this one up!

22 July chase

Given that (a) I'm home a bit earlier than normal today and (b) I am awaiting convection to fire in today's ripening conditions I thought I would complete the post regarding yesterday's chase over three counties. My son and I left for Culpeper at 4:45 to establish ourselves in what we saw as the "sweet spot" for convection given the conditions. After we grabbed some dinner at a local fast food joint we checked radar and found that the only decent-looking storm visible was a tower over I-64 that we could see from our vantage point. Other cells east of the Blue Ridge were trying to go up without success, so we pulled up stakes and rolled down Rte 522 to the Lahore area in Orange county, where we caught up with the back edge of the storm and its relatively high base that was trying to organize into a mesocyclone without much success:
As this updraft decayed we could see another one behind it, so we drifted south a bit and caught this view:
It too was high-based and unlikely to develop into anything severe, but the countryside was quiet and the storm views were unimpeded by trees so we sat for a while. As we perused radar and listened to my trusty weather radio we noticed that more cells were going up over Madison county in the direction of the sunset:
We decided to attempt an intercept of the largest storm by going through the town of Orange and steaming up Rte 15, but by the time we got into position all the updrafts were collapsing and the sun was close to the horizon. Thus, we called it a chase and headed home without seeing anything spectacular but having enjoyed what we did see.

Culpeper-Orange-Madison-Culpeper counties

With ripening conditions this afternoon showing the town of Culpeper as the bullseye (e.g. supercell composite value of 4 was centered there) my son and I left for that vicinity just before 5 pm this afternoon to await convection. We wound up chasing down a storm system in southeastern Orange county where I shot this rainbow:

After that storm died out we motored through the town of Orange to catch up with a couple of promising cells in Madison county, but they too died before we could reach them. I'll post more pictures at a later date as tomorrow looks even better. Just hope I can make the time to chase!

It's Cristobal

Not sure that Cristobal will lead to storms in our area. In fact, given the subsiding air that usually exists west of a tropical system Cristobal may well suppress any storms tomorrow that would otherwise result from an approaching cold front. However, there is always the chance of more tropical systems affecting our area directly or indirectly. I'll be watching...

Possible tropical system

"THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE
COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF
NECESSARY.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...
SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE
COAST.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE."

Models don't seem to have converged yet on a solution for
this system.  Will we have storms from this system? 
Stay tuned...

Typical chaser pose

Facing an onrushing convective line, the chaser carefully frames his photograph.

13 July Fauquier/Culpeper/Spotsylvania chase

An approaching cold front forced a pronounced "lee trough" east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, and the resulting convection convinced me to pick up my son and head northwest just after 3:00 pm. We stopped for a while in Bealeton to check radar and let things percolate and were rewarded with a lone cell out ahead of the main line, which we intercepted in southwestern Fauquier county. We witnessed an interesting lowering from our observation point:
The scud that had collected and attached to this base soon dispersed and we didn't see anything else on this storm, but the one just to the south gave us a neat view of the oncoming rainshaft with the Blue Ridge mountains in the background:
As this storm approached we beat feet south and east toward Culpeper, realizing that a formidable line of storms was forming south of us. We motored through the town and headed east, witnessing evidence of the strong outflow as we waited for a traffic light:
We headed east to stay ahead of said line, but not before the cloud deck had overspread us a few times. With the rainshaft only a couple of minutes behind us I snapped this picture that reminds me of the scene in "Close Encounters" in which a UFO approaches:
We wound up in Spotsylvania county witnessing the collapse of section of the line that we were tracking, so we packed it in and called it a chase. We never heard a severe warning during the chase nor did we really see anything severe, but the overall spectacle provided some "omigosh" moments.

9 July? Nope!

Another example of the toilet bowl...storms passing by south and north of the area and out of my chasing reach. I might have been able to catch the northernmost cell in the southern line as it passed through Caroline county, but I had already committed to something else this evening. Besides, even tho' the cell looked impressive visually it wasn't very exciting on radar. With gas approaching $4/gallon I am getting pickier about what I chase. Now if this was one of the first chases in the spring and I was suffering mightily from SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome) things might have been different...

9 July potential?

Given the SPC Day 2 forecast and the local Sterling weather office discussions it appears that tomorrow (Wednesday) may be a productive chase day in our area. Whether or not I can break free from the daily grind to seek my convective fortune is another story...

Independence Day storms

As has happened during a number of past Independence Days Nature provided her own fireworks Friday just as our cookout with friends and family was in full swing. The chicken and hot dogs were done just in time to avoid the downpour, and in the meantime we had a great view of an approaching shelf cloud. The section of the line that crossed our area actually exhibited a significant bow on radar, which was borne out by the fairly strong straight-line winds that blasted through just before 6 pm. Every day this weekend has resulted in some sort of shower/thunderstorm due to the tropical-like characteristics of the soggy airmass beneath a stalled front, but the probabilities for severe weather have been pretty low. Summertime is here!

30 June chase pictures

It took a lot longer than I realized it would to select, edit, and post these pictures. I had a hard time choosing the ones I wanted from the several dozen snapshots I took during yesterday's chase of a shelf cloud near sunset. The coloration was awesome, and even these edited pictures don't do it justice. Anyway when I finally burst into a viewing position in southeastern Fauquier county the shelf cloud was literally filled the horizon (photo 1, photo 2), with condensation "fingers" dipping down just to the west of my position (photo 3). As the storm plodded majestically eastward the sunset-colored shelf cloud approached my position and then passed over me with cold wind gusts tugging at the jacket I had actually remembered to bring (photo 4, photo 5, photo 6, photo 7). As the cloudline approached me I watched as the leading edge sucked up scud as it neared my position (photo 8, photo 9). With the rainshaft literally 60 seconds from me I finally pulled up stakes and headed southeastward to another viewing location just south of the rainshaft. While I was there I saw a "pseudofunnel" on the leading edge of the storm that I would bet some folks thought was a real funnel...it wasn't. Leaving there I continued southeastward through varying amounts of rain until I just had to stop and snap several shots of the gorgeous cloud coloring from the very low sun angle just before sunset. Finally reaching U.S. Route 1 I turned south to head for home and immediately became interested in what appeared to be a rotating updraft on the rear of the overall storm complex. Plowing through yet more back roads I found another viewing location just before full dark and snapped more photos of a likely mesocyclone signature. (The latter photo has been heavily edited to compensate for the almost total darkness at this point.) As I stated in yesterday's post there was no rotation evident on the one radar view I checked; however in a different doppler velocity view at the beginning of this post the circled area shows at least some rotation to provide evidence I wasn't dreaming this up. At any rate this was a great chase for photos of cloud structure and coloration!