Friday still looking ok

Even tho' tomorrow is the first of February the forecast cold frontal passage is stirring
the hopes of us MidAtlantic chasers. From the Sterling forecast discussion this afternoon:

"SPC HAS LOWER SOUTHERN MD IN A SLIGHT RISK AND HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED THUNDER IN THIS AREA. HIGH HELICITIES
ALSO RESIDE IN THIS AREA...SO A BRIEF SPIN UP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE."

I will definitely be reviewing the radar and short-range forecast models tomorrow.  I
may have a chance to head out after lunch; if I do it looks like I'll be heading southeast
toward the Tappahannock vicinity.  Here's to the 2008 chase season initiation!!

Starting February out right?

According to the SPC eastern VA should have at least a small chance of severe weather during Friday's cold frontal passage. With the forecast low-level jet speeds the severity would be in the form of high winds if the front can spawn enough of an updraft to tap into it. Not quite sure I can break free early Friday afternoon to head east and check it out, but if the Day 2's look any better than the above Day 3 convective forecast I might have to start laying the groundwork to chase!

Cold temps and beach vacation planning

The low temperature this morning at our local airport was 10 degrees F, so I did what every red-blooded Southerner does on such days: I booked our family beach vacation for the end of May. Last year we rented a home in Corolla NC and had the relaxing family vacation we had talked about for years, so we are trying it again this year (albeit in a different house). It doesn't appear that everyone can make it for the full week, but that's the beauty of having a full week booked...our kids can come and go as their schedules dictate. Of course my wife and I plan to enjoy the entire week! Now, about that snow/sleet/freezing rain forecast for tomorrow...!!

April chase plans

And now for something completely different...we have conducted family Plains chase trips in early May (2002), mid-May (2004), and early June (2006), but this year we're doing late April. I took the plunge the other night and booked flights between Richmond (VA) and Dallas for a very reasonable price. This year, however, there are two caveats: my son and daughter-in-law can't make it (both started new jobs and don't have vacation time available) and I can only afford the time and money for a concentrated long weekend chase. I will arrive in Dallas Saturday morning and my brother and I will chase Sat. Apr 19th thru Tues Apr 22nd. The hope is that the earlier timeframe will lead to chases in Texas and Oklahoma rather than in Kansas and points further north. To date I have not chased in Oklahoma at all, so maybe this trip will fix that. And, who knows, maybe I'll finally get to chase on the dryline in the TX/OK panhandles?!!

And now for a more typical January

La Nina is in full force at the moment, disrupting typical winter patterns and creating severe weather that should be a harbinger of spring. However this coming weekend will usher in the coldest air of the season so far, with high temps in the local area forecast to be below normal for a while. In a truly cold Mid-Atlantic winter we usually can count on 4-6 weeks of bun-freezing weather during January and February, sometimes without a break. To date it doesn't appear that La Nina will allow that to happen, but it doesn't mean that us warm weather enthusiasts can breathe a sigh of relief just yet. On the bright side we have had some decent March chases in the past few years, so chase season might not be that far off!

Reprise: the wild swings continue

See what I mean? We'll be on the road tomorrow afternoon and if we see anything I will just have to stop and take pictures!!

Springtime? Or does the calendar say January?

Let's see...tornadoes in the eastern Plains and the Midwest, temperatures here in the Mid-Atlantic in the 70's. Sounds like late April, but the forecast for Monday calls for a mixed snow/rain event so it must still be January. So is it the dreaded "Global Warming" - which is cited for causing everything bad that occurs - or is it simply a moderate to strong La Nina which created similar wild swings in temperatures in the winter of 1973-74 when climatologists were chewing on their fingernails about the next Ice Age coming from a global cooling? Whatever, I'll enjoy the warm weather while it's here and shiver in the cold when it comes back...and it will.

A New Year

OK, so how did 2008 sneak up on us so fast? Doesn't matter, I suppose, as long as I recognize and seize the opportunity for new beginnings. One such beginning is a slight redesign of my admittedly simplistic website at www.cjwhite.us on which I've posted both my 2007 chase narrative and a severe weather briefing slideshow developed from personal photos of severe features. The chase narrative could be considered an appendix to my book (Confessions of a Storm Junkie), the link for which is also now posted on the site. Another addition is a link to The Fred Review, my son Nathan's website for happenings in Fredericksburg VA.

Hope all have a Happy New Year! (Go Hokies!!)