Vindication?

This radar depiction is time stamped 28 minutes after I saw the afore-posted funnel yesterday, and it shows what appears to be a low-level circulation in the same cell. I at least know I wasn't hallucinating, but I'm not sure the Sterling WFO forecaster who took my call yesterday would agree with that...must be the victim of another low level circulation not visible on their radar.

Local convection

With little or no steering currents Saturday's updrafts led to cells that moved in seemingly random directions, building up and then raining out over basically the same area. Thus I made no plans to chase, but when a storm built just to our south I decided to become a spotter and headed out at 2250 UT to an open area in our subdivision to watch. I watched and photographed the storm for over 25 minutes before I left to stay ahead of the rain. The photo shows some of the features I witnessed, but nothing severe happened. Just another experience of outflow, lightning and thunder, and the joy of a storm.

Oops, a funnel?!!

I'll post a bit more later on the weekend's take, but I have to put this one into words. I was heading home from work today amid a few average cells when I rounded a corner and saw a substantial funnel hanging from the rear of an innocent-looking storm over Fredericksburg. I thought I was seeing things, but I caught a few more glimpses of it through the trees as I strove mightily to get to a spot where I could really see. By the time I did, tho', the funnel had dissipated. I had no camera with me, and the Sterling WFO rep who I talked to thought I was as crazy as I felt when I called in the report. Even tho' the radar and velocity frames don't seem to bear witness to what I saw I still maintain that it was a funnel and not just scud. It was attached to a somewhat-lowered rainfree base at the rear of the storm. Plus I wasn't even thinking about chasing so I didn't wish it into existence. Oh well...

27 July chase

I had been keeping an eye on the radar at work this day but didn’t expect much until I saw we were under an MD that morphed into a severe TS watch. I managed to streak out of work at 1730 UT to head home and assess the situation. After a quick analysis I left home at 1830 for the Warrenton area but stopped in Bealeton for a few minutes to reassess. Hearing of a strong storm to the north I moved locations to just west of Marshall off I-66, where I realized a weakened line was crossing the Blue Ridge and would need time to reorganize further east. So, I followed it through rural Fauquier county, stopping several times to enjoy the view as the storms developed and experienced some strong outflow (see top photo). I wound up in Stafford county – again on rural roads as this was a summer Friday with horrible traffic conditions - and watched as the line approached the elementary school near my house (bottom photo). Of course as I watched the storms weakened literally before my eyes, so I left for home at 2200. A later check of a radar loop verified this weakening followed by a quick jump of convective activity 60 miles to the east where a new and stronger line formed over the Northern Neck of Virginia, skipping us entirely. The “Toilet Bowl” again...

Unsettled Wx

This entire week holds the potential for convection given a nearby upper level cold pool, but nothing severe looks likely until Sunday when a front is modeled to plow thru the area. Conditions look interesting for that afternoon with the GFS forecasting the front to reach the I-95 corridor near 2:00 p.m. In the meantime I'll be keeping one eye on radar the rest of this week in case I need to sprint out the door...

19 July chase

With SPC saying wonderful things about shear, favorable hodographs, and a Severe TS watch I was ready to chase today after yesterday’s activity happened out of reach. Amazingly enough I was able to get away from work at 1730 UT and head home to gather the chase gear. Storms were already firing so I was a bit late to get into a good location for chasing vice spotting. As it turned out my son was available so I picked him up and we positioned ourself just west of I-95 in central Stafford county to intercept a section in which both a mesocyclone and a TVS had been radar-indicated. Just before the strong outflow struck and the rains began we saw these features (photos) that may have been evidence of a dissipating circulation behind the gust front. We bailed from that position after the rain struck and headed east through Stafford county into King George county in a tailchase of the southern end of the convective line in hopes that something else interesting would happen. We did see a fuzzy feature under a cell in which another meso was radar-indicated, but nothing clearer materialized during our swing all the way to the eastern King George line where we gave up as the storms accelerated and left us behind.

7/11 salute!

After yesterday’s “minichase” in King George county today’s event had more potential for severe weather with SPC marking Northern VA with a slight risk. I left work after completing an all morning meeting and came home to view radar and models. Given the SW/NE trajectory of the existing and forecast storms, at 1830 UT I chose to head northwest into Fauquier county to stay north of the Rappahannock River (to avoid being trapped). I wandered through SE Fauquier county just south of Remington and settled at a quiet location near a farm about 1920. A slow moving storm was gathering itself and moving in my direction so I stayed put for 30 minutes and took pictures (see photos). The bottom picture shows what appears to be the northern end of the leading edge bowing to the northeast and possibly wrapping up. (Radar images don’t agree with this, but the storm did have rotation on its SW edge.) I left this position just ahead of the rain shaft and sought another vantage point in NE Stafford county, but by the time I got there the cells had dissipated. Nothing severe near our location, but I was out chasing!

July 10 minichase

With no cap and lots of CAPE (pun intended) updrafts shot up early today, with my initial clue that there were storms coming from a very noisy closeby cell that developed a radar-indicated hailshaft. After agonizing over the radar for 15 minutes or so (should I leave work early or not?) I jetted out the door at 1815 UT and pointed the chasemobile out of the parking lot. The storms were growing faster than I could position myself to avoid the rainshafts, but they weren't moving very much so they suffered quick demises as the updrafts collapsed. I didn't have a camera with me but I did see some cool CG's (couple of them were a wee bit too close when I was out of the car) and actually experienced some greenage. It was definitely more of a spotting day rather than a chase, but storms are storms!!

July 5 chase

This chase was in part due to frustration at not being able to chase on July 4^th when several supercells formed in northwestern VA with rotation evident. We had family/friend obligations for Independence Day and didn’t want to be rude so we gritted our teeth and let the storms pass up north. The forecast for the 5^th seemed somewhat similar, but our expectations outweighed the results. My son and I left home after 1900 UT and headed up to the Warrenton area to await convection. After experiencing an overall rainy mess that fell apart as we watched, we ate dinner and then headed up to the Winchester VA area where the southern end of a line in West Virginia looked like it would swoop through. After several starts and stops we finally ended up north of Berryville on a country road, less than 5 miles from the West Virginia line. We watched for a while hoping that things would get more exciting but they didn’t, so we pulled up stakes at 2330 and headed home. Not our most productive chase, but it did alleviate some of the frustrations at missing the 4^th of July supercells...