At last! Something severe!

Beggars can't be choosy, so I won't complain too much about trees and lack of a decent road system...After several abortive convective events I finally scored something severe today. With both a mesoscale discussion and a severe TS watch for the region I was able to pull away from work early and head home to check radar and grab my gear. After noticing that one cell headed southeastward near Orange had radar-indicated rotation I determined my target area and headed out the door at 1945 UT. Stopping in Thornburg to rescope the situation I made a command decision to head westward and then southward to get south of the rotation but alas, I was 20 minutes too late. I stopped in the parking lot of Spotsylvania High School and snapped a regular and a closeup shot of what appeared to be a wall cloud to my south just before heavy rain set in. These photos were taken at the same time as the doppler velocity image shown which validates that what I saw most likely was a wall cloud. I turned back east to get ahead of the storm but it weakened quickly. If only I hadn’t dallied too long at home I might have been in position to see if anything was under that wall cloud....

Global warming? Cooling? !!!!!!

I have concluded that forum discussions of the global warming issue are useless; most of the frequent posters have already loudly proclaimed their position on one side or the other and serious logical debate goes out the window in a hurry. I was likely the chief instigator for such a global warming thread appearing on a popular weather forum and the debate rather quickly degenerated into name calling and finger pointing. Having said that, my overall position is that we shouldn't be putting too much credence into a field of science that is still basically in its infancy and using relatively incomplete data and immature software models to focus public attention on the dangers of greenhouse gases. What we should be doing is cleaning up our environment in a systematic fashion, not fussing about CO2 "credits" or limits. What about water pollution, or acid rain, or particulate emissions, or burgeoning landfills full of long lasting solid waste? Are these not as important as how much CO2 we produce?
With that rant done, here are some interesting articles about the whole global warming/cooling thingie...
Article #1
Article #2
Article #3

Redesignation: The "Goldfinch Chase"

In light of my 19 June bust I decided to rename this the "Goldfinch Chase" as this was the only interesting sight I saw that day.

B-U-S-Ted chase

Even tho' conditions were definitely ripe yesterday I experienced a total chase bust for my efforts. The SPC, the local WFO, and the models I looked at all agreed that I should have seen something for my troubles, but such was not to be. After monitoring radar for a couple of hours I left home at 1930 UT for Bealeton to position myself for the predicted northeastward traveling cells. Given the general funkiness of the air (three H's in abundance!) visibility was limited and I sat in one spot for almost an hour without seeing much. I finally headed westward toward a darker patch of sky and was rewarded with thunder rumbles, but that was it. I broke a cardinal rule of chasing and left for home early to see what was going on. The image above shows the severe TS watch box overlain on a radar view which itself shows what was not happening. The only cells in Virginia east of the Blue Ridge hugged the ridgeline and were not worth chasing. Nothing else happened (not even at night when the front came through) and I was shut out once again.

Wannabe chase

With today showing signs of summertime having finally arrived (the three H's arrived with a vengeance) I wasn't looking for a chase. However a few storms popped up east of the Blue Ridge and one of them headed toward Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania as a severe-warned hail storm. The radar snapshot shows the storm about the time I hopped in the chasemobile to take a peak, even tho' an outflow boundary provided physical evidence the storm was collapsing. I did see a few CG's but the rainshaft dissipated as I watched. Tomorrow could be different, 'tho, if a lee trough does develop over the Virginia Piedmont ahead of an approaching cold front. I am ready.

Free advertisement for "Confessions of a Storm Junkie"

This past weekend Jesse Ferrell of Weathermatrix posted an entry on his blog in which he plugged my book "Confessions of a Storm Junkie". It was a very nice writeup and can be found here. So far five copies of the book have sold!! (One of which I bought...) Who knows where it will go now?

June 13: Another constrained chase

Another June chase, albeit another one with a time constraint as I had yet another evening meeting. I was able to leave work at 1830 UT again and sped home to doublecheck radar. The good stuff – which I couldn’t wait on - was still pretty far north but I decided to catch a cell in eastern Fauquier county. I left home at 1918 and wended my way via back roads to a spot behind the storm where I saw what looked like beginnings of a wall cloud wrapping up (first photo). Seeing nothing else I headed further into Fauquier county for an even better view of the storm (second photo). While there I heard reports of another more promising storm coming from the north that was briefly tornado-warned. I started to head toward Warrenton to intercept it and realized that I didn’t have time to do that and make it to my evening meeting. I reluctantly called it a chase and headed for home. The best action came after dark when a squall line rolled through with some great CG’s, wind, and radar-indicated hail in the area.

12 June chase

With decent CAPE, upper level cold pool, and almost no cap today’s convection began bubbling early so I left work at 1830 UT and headed home, stopping to observe a couple of cells. After reviewing the weather watches (we were under a severe TS watch) and not seeing much on radar I decided to pick a visible updraft to the west and hope it continued developing. Left home at ~1930 for western Stafford on back roads and finally settled in place to watch two separate storms, enjoying the distant lightning and thunder in a rural setting. With a time limit (I had an evening meeting to attend) and not seeing anything severe I left for home at 2105, stopping for a quick dinner with friends at a local restaurant. As I left the restaurant to go to my meeting I saw a beautifully sunlit cell. The main storm punch came (of course!) during my meeting in which power blinked several times with close CG strikes. A very chaseable day in the local area!

No chase, but a couple of pix

Couldn't chase yesterday evening, but a beautifully sunlit cell showed up almost on our doorstep. I took this picture almost too late as I didn't have my camera handy.

8 June chase

The Mid-Atlantic was between an approaching cold front and a ridge of high pressure which threatened to cap the atmosphere until after dark, but a blessed pre-frontal trough formed east of the Blue Ridge and gave us something to chase. My son and I left the house at 1920 (UT) for the Bealeton area based on models and surface obs, but when we got there at 2000 convection had started to fire south of us. So we plunged south, heading through Culpeper county to intercept a slow moving storm coming across the Blue Ridge. Since the storm we were watching weakened we headed even further south into Madison county, just east of the Blue Ridge, to catch a stronger storm as it crossed the mountains. We were treated to a very pastoral scene as storms approached but were concerned as this too weakened. Realizing that storms were reintensifying further east across the Piedmont we headed southeast into Orange county, stopping at a hilltop hotel to watch as scud gathered. With bright CGs splashing down around us we headed further east through the town of Orange and up Route 20. With the storms now strengthening and coalescing we continued southeast down Route 522, stopping on a county road just east of the highway and right on the Orange/Spotsylvania line. We were treated to a tremendous CG display as a feeder line of storms fired literally before our eyes (top photo). We saw the beginnings of a wall cloud (bottom photo) but weren’t impressed enough to call it in. (After dark that storm developed a radar-indicated mesocylone over Caroline county.) We wearily trudged home behind the storm, arriving after 0100. Good chase!

Friday again?

It looks like we have a chance for something severe tomorrow. It depends on how strong the cap is and if the approaching cold front can generate a prefrontal trough east of the Appalachians early enough to trigger convection before nightfall. I will be reviewing the models and radar closely tomorrow and plan to position myself in a promising region to await the cap erosion. Since it's Friday I'll have to pay close attention to the traffic, so that may limit my chase region. Keeping my fingers crossed...

Come a little bit closer...

Yesterday storms did fire in the area...they were just too far north inside the "traffic circle of death" that surrounds the Washington DC metro region. This evening a few showers popped up, but I'm not yet desperate enough to chase after low-topped rainclouds in the dark, especially when there's not even any lightning to spice things up. Friday may be a different story tho!

Outer Banks pix

The White family trip to Corolla NC. If the weather was lousy for chasing it was certainly ideal for a vacation!

Post-vacation

Back from the Outer Banks of North Carolina where we enjoyed a week of perfect beach weather. (Pictures to follow later). Now it's back to chasing. What was the SPC Day 3 convective forecast was saying about Monday in the Mid-Atlantic? (...keeping fingers crossed that I won't run into a buzz saw at work and can get out early enough to chase!)