Fredericksburg area convection

Not much popped up on radar away from the Bay breeze this afternoon, but one cell did go up just west of Fredericksburg about 1630. I stopped in southern Stafford county to watch the base as the rain shaft strengthened, seeing some interesting motion on the back side of the updraft. The two photos above are the best representation of what I was viewing but nothing else exciting happened, not even lightning. However, the overall updraft did appear to be slowly rotating with a few minor striations showing in the cloud canopy. That was enough to keep my interest until the overall storm began to weaken and I could see through the rain shaft. Pretty convenient "chase", as I was coming home from work and was less than 5 miles from the house.

Good boomers today, just no chasing

There were several decent cells that rumbled through the area today that I could have chased except for timing, a prior engagement, and a vociferously complaining back muscle. I did get out to spot check one storm at the local elementary school, but the aforementioned back muscle discouraged investigations further from home. Oh well, given that tomorrow's conditions are forecast to resemble today's perhaps there will be another opportunity tomorrow afternoon.

Picked the wrong storm, but it was a chase

Given a pre-frontal trough forecast east of the Blue Ridge I rolled out of my driveway just before 1500 today to head for Culpeper. The local short range models had indicated convection firing over the Piedmont around 1600, and I wasn't disappointed. The above radar depiction shows what I was seeing on radar when I picked the complex south of town to chase: it was larger and somewhat more organized than the northern cell near Warrenton, which looked to be fading. I thus motored southeast out of the Culpeper area down Rte 522, where I stopped on a west facing hillside and snapped this photo:
This was a rain free base between two cells which was exhibiting a lowering and some incipient inflow accompanied by a couple of explosive nearby CGs. I continued eastward to Rte 20 to stay ahead of the rain while keeping an eye on this part of the storm but never saw anything that I could identify as a wallcloud. Meanwhile I checked radar again and saw the northern storm had strengthened, so I continued east to (hopefully) intercept it near Fredericksburg. Alas, by the time I got there it had fallen apart as shown in the below radar depiction:
The infamous "toilet bowl" had struck again, with the line of storms dividing and avoiding the Fredericksburg area. I headed home with visions of a missed opportunity dancing in my head...I shoulda picked the northern storm, but a chaser can't always be right!

What's with the question marks?????

I've noticed that all my July posts have been punctuated with question marks, and maybe that reflects this unusual summer weather the Mid-Atlantic is experiencing. I will try to be more creative and not continue along that rut....
The short-range models today still indicate the approach of the cold front near dark in the Winchester area, but they are also showing development of a pre-frontal trough east of the Blue Ridge later this afternoon with convection breaking out sometime around 5:00 pm. As such I am now planning to be in Culpeper before that time unless radar indicates something else. Why Culpeper? (Again with the question marks!!) Short answer is the road system there. I can go just about in any compass direction on a major highway to reach a burgeoning updraft. So stay tuned!!

Saturday evening storms?

The models seem to indicate that a cold front that was supposed to steam through here on Saturday has slowed and will likely pass through during the night. The above depiction shows a possibility of some precipitation entering the Shenandoah Valley by 8 pm Saturday and some decent CAPE (instability) and helicity (rotation potential) are also forecast for that time, meaning some storms could fire before dark. Additionally the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 convective outlook has that area under a small (5%) chance of severe weather for Saturday. Depending on how things look in the short-range models on Saturday - as well as how much the radar lights up - I may head up toward Winchester late that afternoon to catch some storms in the open farm country west of the Blue Ridge. I'm ready for some more action!